The divergence in global Bitcoin market sentiment is widening. Recent data shows that while funds outside the United States are withdrawing en masse, institutional investors from Wall Street remain calm and continue to hold their positions.
This “hot-cold” gap is especially evident in the futures market. According to Greg Cipolaro, head of research at NYDIG, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), which is the main battleground for US hedge funds and institutional players, still indicates that investors are willing to pay a premium to maintain Bitcoin long positions.
By observing the “one-month annualized basis (the premium of futures prices over spot prices),” it becomes clear that the premium level at CME is significantly higher than at Deribit, the largest crypto derivatives exchange outside the US.
Greg Cipolaro pointed out, “The basis in offshore markets has decreased more noticeably, indicating that the market’s appetite for high-leverage long positions is cooling down.” He believes that the widening basis between CME and Deribit has become an instant thermometer for measuring the “risk appetite” of funds in different regions worldwide: US institutions are still buying, but offshore investors have started to pull back.
Earlier this month, Bitcoin briefly dipped below $60,000 before rebounding. At that time, there was speculation that breakthroughs in quantum computing technology could potentially crack Bitcoin’s encryption, sparking panic selling.
However, NYDIG believes that the data does not support this theory. First, Bitcoin’s price movements are actually highly correlated with publicly listed quantum computing companies—such as IonQ (IONQ) and D-Wave Quantum (QBTS). The logic is simple: if quantum computers truly were “Bitcoin terminators,” then when quantum technology advances and the stock prices of related companies soar, Bitcoin should plummet.
In reality, both Bitcoin and these quantum companies have moved in tandem downward. In other words, this appears to be a broad risk appetite cooling for “long-term, future-oriented assets,” rather than a purely technical concern specific to Bitcoin.
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