Bank of America Global Research: Expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in April

Institution: Cooling expectations for rate cuts, and easing expectations around Middle East conflict or limiting upside space for gold prices

Sky Links Capital CEO Daniel Takieddine said that, as expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts weaken, the upside potential for gold is limited. The price of gold is influenced by strong U.S. labor data and geopolitical risk. He noted that gold’s near-term performance will depend on U.S. economic data and policy signals.

The Bank of Japan avoids committing to an April rate hike; the market expects a 66% probability of a rate hike this month

The Bank of Japan has issued cautious signals through its quarterly economic report, expressing hesitation about raising interest rates—especially amid rising uncertainty and concerns about price increases. The market estimates the likelihood of a rate hike this month at about 66%. When dealing with inflation, companies continue to face rising costs and consumer fatigue.

CME "Fed Watch": 98.4% probability that the rate will be held unchanged in April

Gate News message. On April 6, according to today's CME “FedWatch” data, the probability that the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged in April is 98.4%, and the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike is 1.6%. The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged cumulatively by June is 96.6%, the probability of cumulative 25-basis-point rate cuts is 1.8%, and the probability of cumulative 25-basis-point rate hikes is 1.5%.

The U.S. Senate Banking Committee will review the nomination of Wash, the Fed Chair, on April 16

The U.S. Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing on April 16 to consider Kevin Wosch’s nomination to serve as the Federal Reserve Chair. Although the current chair, Powell, is facing a criminal investigation, Wosch’s nomination process is still ongoing and could conflict with the investigation. Committee member Thom Tillis said he will not confirm Wosch before the investigation is concluded. This shows that Trump faces challenges in advancing two parallel processes.

The U.S. Senate Banking Committee is scheduled to review the nomination of the U.S. Federal Reserve Chair, named Wash, on April 16.

The U.S. Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing on April 16 to review Kevin Wosch’s nomination to serve as the Chair of the Federal Reserve. At the same time, the ongoing criminal investigation into the current Chair, Powell, may affect Wosch’s confirmation process. Committee members have said they will not vote to confirm before the investigation concludes, which could create a potential clash between two tracks of the Trump administration.

U.S. March jobs smash expectations, with 178,000 added

In March, the U.S. added 178,000 jobs, recovering from February's losses and reducing the unemployment rate to 4.3%. The stronger-than-expected report may influence future interest rate decisions by the Fed amidst fluctuating oil prices.