Pi Network falls for three consecutive sessions, approaches the critical threshold; breaking the trendline may crash to $0.19

Pi Network saw three consecutive declines on Friday, approaching the local support trendline formed by connecting the lows of October 22 and November 4. Technically, the MACD indicator’s moving averages are steadily falling toward the zero axis; if they cross into negative territory, this will enhance the downward momentum. If Pi Network breaks below the trendline near the December 1 low of $0.2204, it will likely test the $0.1919 support level.

CEX Net Inflow of 990,000 Tokens Indicates Rising Hedging Sentiment

(Source: PiScan)

According to PiScan data, in the past 24 hours, users certified through Pi Network’s KYB (Know Your Business) on centralized exchanges (CEX) have deposited a total of 2.75 million PI tokens, surpassing the 1.76 million tokens withdrawn. This means there was a daily net inflow of 990,000 tokens to CEXs, reflecting persistent hedging sentiment among investors. An increase in centralized exchange wallet balances is usually seen as a bearish signal, as it means more tokens are being moved to exchanges in preparation for sale.

The logic behind interpreting this on-chain data is: when users are bullish on a token, they typically withdraw it from exchanges to their own wallets for long-term holding; conversely, when users are bearish or need liquidity, they deposit tokens to exchanges in preparation for selling. Although a daily net inflow of 990,000 may not seem large in absolute terms, given Pi Network’s relatively limited liquidity, this scale of selling pressure is sufficient to cause a significant price impact.

More importantly, is the persistence of this trend. If CEX net inflows remain positive for several consecutive days, it will create sustained selling pressure, making it difficult for any technical rebounds to hold. Conversely, if net outflows from CEXs (withdrawals exceeding deposits) begin to appear in the coming days, it will be an important signal of easing selling pressure. Therefore, investors should closely monitor PiScan’s daily CEX liquidity data, as it is one of the most important on-chain indicators for judging short-term price trends.

From a market psychology perspective, increased CEX net inflows may reflect several situations: first, early mining users finally pass KYC verification and choose to take profits; second, holders lose confidence in Pi Network’s long-term prospects and decide to cut losses and exit; third, continued token unlocking releases new supply, with some recipients immediately moving tokens to exchanges to cash out. In any case, the result is increased market selling pressure, posing downside risk to Pi Network’s price.

$0.2204 Trendline Is the Key Bull-Bear Battleground

(Source: Trading View)

Pi Network’s price is retreating to the local support trendline formed by connecting the lows of October 22 and November 4, a trendline that has supported price rebounds several times since its formation. If PI breaks below this trendline near the December 1 low of $0.2204, it could further fall to the psychological threshold of $0.2000, and then possibly test the $0.1919 support level, which coincides with the October 11 low.

Why is $0.2204 so critical? From a technical analysis perspective, a trendline connecting multiple price lows forms a dynamic support, representing a concentration area of buying power at different times. The lows on October 22 and November 4 both rebounded after finding support near this trendline, showing strong buying support at this price level. However, with three consecutive days of declines bringing prices close to the trendline, this support is now facing a severe test.

A trendline’s effectiveness weakens each time it is tested. This is an important principle in technical analysis: the more often a support level is tested, the more likely it is to eventually be broken. Pi Network’s trendline has already been tested in October and November, and now a third test is underway. If it holds again, the trendline’s reliability will be further strengthened; but if it breaks, technical stop-loss selling will be triggered, accelerating the decline.

Pi Network Key Technical Levels

Current price: around $0.2204

First support: $0.2204 (trendline)

Second support: $0.2000 (psychological round number)

Third support: $0.1919 (October 11 low)

First resistance: $0.2841 (last week’s high)

Second resistance: $0.3220 (August 1 low)

$0.2000 is the first major support after the trendline is broken. As a psychological round number, this price level often attracts a large number of limit buy orders, since investors tend to set buy targets at whole numbers. From $0.2204 to $0.2000 is about a 9% downside, and such a drop is entirely possible within a few days given Pi Network’s volatility.

$0.1919 is a deeper support level, coinciding with the historical low on October 11. In technical analysis, this price level is known as “previous low support,” meaning the lowest point of a prior pullback often provides support in subsequent corrections. If Pi Network falls to this level, it would represent a total drop of about 13% from the current price. Such a decline would put many short-term holders at a loss, possibly triggering further panic selling.

MACD Death Cross Imminent, RSI Not Oversold Suggests Further Downside

On the daily chart, the MACD indicator shows the moving averages continuing to decline and approaching the zero axis. If the falling red and blue lines cross into negative territory, Pi Network’s downside momentum could increase. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) is a trend-following indicator composed of the fast line (12-day EMA), slow line (26-day EMA), and histogram. When the fast line crosses below the slow line into negative territory, a bearish crossover (“death cross”) forms, typically signaling the start or acceleration of a downtrend.

Although a full death cross has not yet formed on the MACD, the fast and slow lines are rapidly converging and both approaching the zero axis. This pattern is called a “pre-death cross signal” in technical analysis, and is usually confirmed within a few days. Once the death cross forms, it will attract technical traders to enter short positions or close longs, further increasing downside pressure. Historically, Pi Network has tended to experience sustained downtrends after a MACD death cross forms, until a golden cross reappears.

Despite the MACD issuing a sell signal, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the same chart is at 46, maintaining a sideways trend near the centerline. RSI is a momentum indicator that measures the speed and magnitude of price changes, ranging from 0 to 100. Usually, an RSI below 30 is considered oversold, above 70 is overbought. The current reading of 46 shows the market is in a neutral state, neither overbought nor oversold.

However, the room between the RSI and the oversold area indicates potential downside risk. From 46 to the oversold region at 30 is a gap of 16 points, meaning Pi Network’s price theoretically has considerable space to fall before an oversold rebound is triggered. In momentum logic, only when the RSI enters the oversold zone and starts rebounding can it be confirmed that selling pressure has been fully released and buyers are re-entering. The current level of 46 suggests selling pressure has not yet been fully released.

A combined analysis of RSI and MACD provides a more complete market picture. The imminent MACD death cross shows the trend is turning bearish, while the RSI not yet being oversold indicates further downside momentum. This dual-indicator bearish confirmation means Pi Network’s short-term price outlook favors further downside. Only when the RSI enters oversold and the MACD stops falling should bargain hunting be considered.

Rebound Scenario: Regaining $0.2841 Would Reverse Downtrend

To resume an uptrend, Pi Network would need to reclaim last week’s high of $0.2841, which could extend gains to the August 1 low of $0.3220. From the current price of $0.2204 to $0.2841 is about a 29% rebound, which would require strong buying support and a clear fundamental catalyst.

$0.2841 is a key resistance level and last week’s high. In technical analysis, previous highs often become resistance for future rebounds because many trapped positions are waiting to break even around that price. Only when the price breaks above the previous high and holds can it be confirmed that the downtrend has ended and a new uptrend has begun.

$0.3220 is the August 1 low and an important level on a longer timeframe. If Pi Network can break through $0.2841 and continue up to $0.3220, that would represent a 46% rise from the current price. Triggers for such a rebound include: a significant slowdown in token unlocking, breakthroughs in MiCA certification for Pi Network, practical applications from OpenMind’s cooperation with Circle, and an overall crypto market recovery.

However, under the current technical and on-chain data setup, the probability of a rebound scenario is relatively low. Three consecutive days of decline, an imminent MACD death cross, and rising CEX net inflows all point to short-term downside risk outweighing upside opportunity. Any rebound should be viewed as an opportunity to reduce positions on strength, not as a signal to establish new long positions. Only after Pi Network clearly reclaims $0.2841 and holds for several days should the validity of a bullish thesis be reassessed.