Musk predicts a 12-year Trump dynasty! War is inevitable in the next 5-10 years

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has recently sparked a series of controversial remarks. On November 22, during an internal video conference with DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency), he predicted that Trump and Vance would govern for as long as 12 years, and later warned on X that “war is inevitable, 5 years, at most 10 years.” According to three sources familiar with the matter, Musk told 150 current and former DOGE members that the United States is at the “beginning of a great 12-year span.”

The Political Calculus and Power Layout of a 12-Year Republican Dynasty

On November 22, Musk appeared via video at a DOGE gathering held in Bastrop, Texas, addressing about 150 current and former members. The event was held on a Musk-owned property, and participants were required to seal their phones to ensure confidentiality. This high level of secrecy itself indicated the sensitivity of the meeting’s content; Musk clearly did not want his predictions to leak out and trigger public controversy immediately.

During this closed-door talk, Musk stated that the US is at the beginning of a “great 12-year span.” His specific prediction: 2025 to 2029 would be Trump’s second term, followed by two JD Vance administrations from 2029 to 2037. This forecast caused a stir among attendees and also highlighted Musk’s close relationship with key members of the potential new administration, especially Vance.

What is the political logic behind this 12-year prediction? Musk evidently believes that Trump’s second term would be successful enough for the Republicans to win again in the 2028 election. Vance, as the sitting vice president, would naturally be the Republican presidential nominee in 2028. If Vance wins in 2028 and is re-elected in 2032, that would indeed make for a 12-year period of Republican rule spanning 2025 to 2037.

However, this prediction overlooks the complexity and uncertainty of US politics. Historically, the party in power usually faces voter fatigue after eight years, and it is common for the opposition to regain control. To achieve 12 consecutive years in power would require an extremely favorable political environment and exceptional governance. Musk’s prediction seems more an expression of support and hope for the Trump administration rather than an objective political analysis.

Three Major Assumptions Underlying Musk’s 12-Year Prediction

Trump’s Second Term is Highly Successful: Economic boom, low unemployment, and high public satisfaction

Vance Succeeds Trump: Wins the 2028 Republican primary against all rivals to secure the nomination

Democrats Remain Weak: The opposition fails to produce appealing candidates and policies

Although Musk has publicly stated this year that he’s “reducing political involvement,” sources say he could become a highly influential supporter if Vance runs in 2028. This contradictory stance reflects Musk’s dilemma: on one hand, he recognizes the risks of being overly involved in politics; on the other, he can’t fully disengage, as government policy directly affects his business interests.

In a recent interview, Musk reflected, “I generally find that when I get involved in politics, it doesn’t end well.” This self-awareness shows he understands the cost of political engagement. Both Tesla and SpaceX are heavily dependent on government policy and regulatory approval, and taking strong political stances may alienate some customers and partners. Nonetheless, this gathering was essentially another “political round” with those who have participated in his political ventures.

The Geopolitical Logic of the 5- to 10-Year War Warning

In another widely discussed public discussion, Musk responded on X to a debate about nuclear deterrence and government efficiency, stating: “War is inevitable. 5 years, at most 10 years.” This prediction is even more explosive than the 12-year governance forecast, as it touches on issues of human survival.

Musk did not specify which region or type of conflict he meant, and this vagueness only increased the impact of his prediction. Given Musk’s rising influence from leading DOGE, involvement in AI and space industries, and massive political donations, the remark was seen as a warning signal for future geopolitical trends.

Musk’s comments quickly sparked global discussion, with users even asking his xAI chatbot Grok for clarification. Grok, referencing Musk’s previous remarks, pointed out long-term risks he has been concerned about, including: large-scale migration in Europe leading to social division, the rise of global identity politics, the ongoing war in Ukraine, and intensifying US-China strategic competition.

Four Major Risk Points in Musk’s War Warning

Ukraine War Escalation: The Russia-Ukraine conflict could expand into a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia

US-China Tech War: Competition in semiconductors, AI, and space could escalate into military conflict

European Social Division: Internal turmoil from immigration issues may weaken the Western alliance

Nuclear Proliferation Risk: More countries acquiring nuclear weapons increases the risk of miscalculation and conflict

From a business perspective, Musk’s war prediction may also reflect the strategic positioning of SpaceX and Starlink. SpaceX is a major contractor for the US military, and the Starlink satellite network has played a critical communications role in the Ukraine war. If Musk truly believes a large-scale conflict will erupt within the next 10 years, his space businesses would become essential national security infrastructure, greatly increasing SpaceX’s strategic value and bargaining power.

In the internal meeting, Musk discussed US civil war risks, the Kardashev scale of civilization development, and Mars colonization. He joked that even if Earth launched missiles at Mars, “the six-month travel time would be enough for Martian settlers to prepare,” drawing laughter from the audience. This way of linking war risks with Mars colonization shows that Musk sees space exploration as humanity’s ultimate insurance policy.

The Third-Highest Assassination Target Theory and the Price of Influence

Musk claims to be America’s “third-highest assassination target,” just behind Trump and Vance. This self-assessment is both an evaluation of personal security risk and a declaration of his own political influence. He cited this as the reason for only appearing by video at the DOGE gathering, saying that “with the meeting details now public,” personal safety became a consideration.

Some attendees told the media that their spouses were disappointed Musk did not appear in person. This reaction reflects Musk’s personal charisma and influence, as people want to interact with him face-to-face. However, his choice to participate remotely may also signal his awareness of the risks of overexposure.

Musk thanked former DOGE members, saying they gave up higher-paying jobs, endured political pressure, and even faced security threats. This gratitude is both recognition of the team and a hint that political involvement does carry real risks. DOGE’s mission is to cut federal spending and reduce the number of government employees, inevitably upsetting entrenched interests and exposing participants to career retaliation or even personal threats.

According to attendees, Musk repeatedly referenced science fiction works such as Heinlein’s “The Moon Is a Harsh Mistress” and Asimov’s “Foundation” series. These works share themes of the rise and fall of civilizations, revolution, and reconstruction, indicating that Musk sees contemporary America as a historical turning point. The “Foundation” series tells the story of scientists establishing a foundation to preserve civilization’s knowledge after the decline of the Galactic Empire—a likely inspiration for Musk’s vision of Mars colonization as humanity’s insurance policy.

Whether predicting the next 12 years of US politics or warning of a global war, Musk’s remarks reflect the immense power he wields at the intersection of technology, business, and politics. As a Trump administration potentially returns and AI and robotics policy enters a new phase, Musk’s influence in Washington is likely to keep growing. Yet, he repeatedly emphasizes his desire to “stay away from politics.” This world-famous tech leader is clearly still playing a key role on the political stage’s edge. That contradiction may persist for a long time, as Musk’s business empire is deeply intertwined with government policy, making it nearly impossible to disengage from politics entirely.