3 altcoins that could benefit if Bitcoin falls below $100,000

Bitcoin is falling deeply into the bearish zone, currently trading around the level of 104,100 USD after losing more than 10% of its value in just one week. In the context of investors worrying about the possibility of Bitcoin breaking through the 100,000 USD mark, attention is gradually shifting towards the altcoin group – the coins that have the potential to grow in contrast when Bitcoin weakens.

Although most tokens often move in the same direction as BTC, there are some rare exceptions with negative or very low correlation, meaning they tend to increase in price when Bitcoin falls. Below are three representative altcoins that could benefit if the downtrend of Bitcoin continues this month.

Tezos (XTZ): An independent platform amidst market turbulence

Tezos stands out as one of the altcoins that can clearly benefit when Bitcoin falls. Known for its self-amending blockchain and on-chain governance mechanism, Tezos has demonstrated independence from the large-cap token group this year. While many coins still follow Bitcoin's trend, Tezos shows signs of going against the tide.

Over the past year, the Pearson correlation coefficient between Tezos and Bitcoin has only been at -0.07, indicating that XTZ tends to move slightly in the opposite direction to BTC. This correlation becomes even more significant as Bitcoin hovers around 103,600 USD and faces pressure to maintain the 100,000 USD mark; Tezos's independence could bring about positive surprises if Bitcoin continues to fall.

Tezos-BTC correlation | Source: DefillamaOn the 4-hour timeframe, the activity of “whales” and smart money flows is showing positive changes. The Smart Money Index (SMI) – reflecting the position of institutional investors – has begun to rise again, signaling renewed confidence in the market. At the same time, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is also trending upward, although still below the 0 threshold, indicating that accumulation may be taking place.

Technically, XTZ is facing the first resistance at 0.53 USD. If it surpasses 0.55 USD, the upward momentum will be strongly reinforced, and once it breaks the 0.58 USD mark, Tezos could advance to 0.60 USD or even higher. Conversely, if it falls below 0.51 USD, the short-term bullish structure will be broken.

XTZ Price Analysis | Source: TradingViewWith a low correlation history along with early accumulation signals, Tezos deserves to be one of the top altcoins that could benefit if Bitcoin declines below the $100,000 threshold.

Pi Coin (PI): The prominent divergence amid the bearish wave

Pi Network is also considered a potential altcoin in the context of Bitcoin's fall, especially due to its clear divergence from BTC's trend. While Bitcoin dropped nearly 10% in the past week, Pi only adjusted slightly by 1%, indicating a growing sign of independence.

In the past year, Pi Coin has recorded a Pearson correlation coefficient with Bitcoin at –0.30 – a significantly stronger negative level compared to Tezos. This indicates that Pi Coin often reacts differently to BTC's fluctuations, even potentially increasing in value when Bitcoin falls sharply. If BTC cannot maintain the 100,000 USD mark, Pi's counter-movement model may attract funds from investors seeking recovery opportunities.

Correlation PI-BTC | Source: DefillamaAnalysis on the daily chart shows that Pi is in a positive technical setup. The SMI indicator remains above the signal line, indicating that smart investors still have faith in the recovery scenario. Although the overall market sentiment is still bearish, large capital flows are optimistic about Pi's potential price increase in the near future.

Regarding key price levels, Pi Coin needs to reclaim the 0.26 USD mark to confirm new strength. If it surpasses 0.29 USD, the upward momentum will be reinforced, opening up opportunities for further growth. However, if Pi falls below 0.22 USD, the risk of testing the 0.19 USD zone will arise, weakening the bullish argument based on negative correlation.

PI Coin Price Analysis | Source: TradingViewThanks to the strong negative correlation with Bitcoin and signs of accumulation from smart money, Pi Coin is considered one of the best-positioned altcoins if Bitcoin continues to fall deeply.

Zcash (ZEC): The breakout of the privacy coin

Zcash is the last name on the list of altcoins that could benefit when Bitcoin falls sharply, especially in the context of the correlation coefficient with BTC having changed significantly in a negative direction.

As one of the leading privacy coins, ZEC is often regarded by experts as a potential alternative to Bitcoin. Over the past year, the Pearson correlation coefficient between Zcash and Bitcoin has only been +0.28, indicating a relatively independent movement. However, just in the past month, this coefficient has dropped sharply to -0.55, showing that Zcash is now almost moving completely in the opposite direction of Bitcoin.

The annual correlation of ZEC-BTC

| Source: Defillama This reversal opens up a great opportunity for Zcash if Bitcoin falls below 100,000 USD. On the price chart, ZEC has recorded an increase of nearly 200% in the past month, while Bitcoin has fallen by about 15.8%. The CMF index remains high at 0.18, reflecting a continuous influx of large capital. Since October 27, the CMF has consistently set new peaks, indicating that large holders are increasing their accumulation.

The monthly correlation of ZEC-BTC | Source: DefillamaIf the CMF surpasses the 0.33 mark – a level reached on October 1st – it will confirm a strong accumulation process from whales, supporting a new bullish rally.

Technically, the Fibonacci extension model indicates that the next resistance level for Zcash is 594 USD. If it surpasses this level, ZEC could increase by about 23% from the current price and maintain the upward momentum. However, if it drops below 341 USD or 245 USD, the bullish structure will be threatened, which may also signal that Bitcoin has avoided a deeper crash.

Zcash price analysis | Source: TradingViewAt present, Zcash remains one of the few altcoins that has a clear negative correlation with Bitcoin, supported by significant capital flow and solid technical signals.

Conclusion

In the context of Bitcoin facing the risk of a deep fall, Tezos, Pi Coin, and Zcash have emerged as top altcoin choices that could benefit from a negative correlation or distinct independence from BTC. Investors should carefully consider technical signals and smart money flow to take advantage of opportunities when the market fluctuates.

Mr. Giáo