RiverOfPassion

Middle East Situation Brief | April 21
The US-Iran two-week ceasefire agreement expires today, and even at the last moment the two sides still remain locked in confrontation, with fighting liable to break out at any moment. Trump issued a harsh warning of “if there’s a bomb, it will explode,” while Iran condemned the US for trying to turn the negotiation table into a “surrender table.” At the same time, the Strait of Hormuz, after a brief reopening, has closed again; clashes along the Lebanon-Israel border continue, and the Houthis have threatened to open a new frontline in the Mandeb Strait.

#First Trade of the Week
I chose the SUIUSDT perpetual contract as the target for the public plan this Monday. Currently, my position is long with 10x leverage, entry price at 0.9407 USDT, current price at 0.9418 USDT, floating profit and loss +1.23%, still holding.
Market Analysis and Judgment
From the hourly chart, SUI has formed a relatively stable support level around 0.93 USDT after the previous decline. The price did not break down after touching the low, but instead showed a series of small bullish candles pushing upward, with the low point gradually rising from 0.928 to 0.935 USDT, mai

The signal that breaks the calm is liquidity retreat.
Weekend slow life? That’s just a bullish fantasy. My weekend plan is to watch the bearish show on the screen. Since I’ve already opened a short position, I don’t mind the small fluctuations of one or two points. In my opinion, what can break this weekend’s tranquility isn’t a big shot’s speech, but the continuous depletion of liquidity. A rebound without buyers is just playing dirty. If the market really “comes back to life,” I’ll admit I was wrong and cut my losses, but before that, I’m betting on “continued cooling.” If you’re also in the

The buildup in the watchlist is for a better dive
I glanced at the watchlist, and it seems everyone is talking about who’s “quietly building up momentum.” My perspective is a bit different: I don’t think the current sideways market is building up for a breakout that’s about to launch, but rather it’s the bulls’ final cover. This weekend, I didn’t choose to go with no position for Huamian—I chose to accompany it with a short. When market sentiment is still leaning toward blind optimism, that’s often when danger is right around the corner. Although volatility isn’t big, some signals (like change

Betting continues to cool down, short positions are already placed
My plan for this weekend is very clear: no outings, stay glued to the screen to verify the logic. After reviewing the market, I feel that the bulls' momentum cannot be sustained, and the lack of a rebound indicates weakness. This weekend, I am betting on the market "continuing to cool down" and have already opened short positions (I won't specify the exact entry points and positions to avoid any suspicion of sharing signals). Opening trades during low liquidity weekends requires a strong heart, but I believe this buildup is for

Let the bullets fly for a while, I’ll have a cup of coffee first
Betting that the market will "continue to cool down" or "come back to life," the low liquidity over the weekend is often a trap. Instead of providing liquidity inside, it's better to sit on the corner and enjoy a pour-over coffee. Watching pedestrians come and go, I suddenly feel that the anxiety in the candlestick charts is very far from me. Are the coins in the watchlist quietly gathering strength now? No, they are plotting how to mess with my mindset when the market opens next Monday. Then let them gather strength first, I’ll

The signal that might break the calm is “I’m hungry”
Everyone in the group is discussing what major signals are worth keeping a close eye on this weekend. If you ask me, the most worth watching signals are the sizzling sound of beef on the barbecue grill, and the “hiss” when you crack open a bottle of ice-cold drink. In a choppy, disorderly market, any technical indicator is lagging and ineffective—only the meat that hits your mouth is real. This week’s trading has already been tough enough, so there’s no need to dedicate even the only weekend you have to Washington and Wall Street. Temporaril

Instead of watching the market for rebounds, it's better to go for a hike and catch the spring breeze
The current market looks like the weather in April, changing suddenly. Watching those candlesticks, I'm afraid of being buried if I go long, and afraid of being squeezed out if I go short. Since I can't figure it out, I might as well go cycling and relax. All I hear is the wind and the sound of the chain turning, and this feeling is much more reassuring than watching the four decimal places jump. I plan to ride these twenty kilometers, then go home, take a shower, and sleep until I wake up nat

Turn off the candlestick chart, switch to motion mode
After a week of continuous watching of the bulls and bears fighting, my body has already sent warning signals. This weekend, I don’t plan to bet on the market’s “full recovery,” I’ve decided to bet on whether my heart rate while climbing can stay steadily within the aerobic zone. Trading contracts requires calculating the liquidation price, but in life, what I need to calculate is how much stamina is left to reach the top. Even if the market suddenly surges, being in the mountains without signal is also a form of passive position locking. W

The top strategy is to stay out of the market and enjoy the flowers
This weekend, I chose to turn off the candlestick charts and go to the park to practice "sitting out and sleeping among the flowers."
Watching day after day of geopolitical events and on-chain data, my mind is buzzing.
Rather than being shaken back and forth in the volatility, I’d rather smell the scent of soil mixed with grass.
I don’t know if the market will come back to life fully, but I know that if I keep staring at the screen, my mental state will keep cooling down.
Trading is a marathon; it’s not about the scene

What happens after the rebound? My next battle plan
Now that the market has moved this far, it’s time to calm down and think about the next step. BTC broke through $76,300, the first time in 73 days that the daily candle closed above $75,000. But let me lay out my three scenarios directly.
Current key market data:
BTC is quoted around $76,300, up 1.94% in 24 hours. ORDI is currently at $9.022, up 212% in 24 hours. SATS is up 58%, NEIRO up 48%, and AXL up 45%. Altcoin rotation has been fully rolling out—MOVR is up over 202%, with Polkadot ecosystem following up. The crypto fear index is 22, ext

How to control your hands during a rebound rally? My position allocation method
What is the biggest fear during a rebound? Not missing out, but getting caught up and chasing highs then being trapped. Using today's data to speak, sharing my position management method.
BTC has already broken through $76,300, up 1.94% in 24 hours, Ethereum has also risen to around $2,370. ORDI is even crazy, up 212% in 24 hours, briefly breaking above $9.5, with a total liquidation of $22.75 million across the network, including $17.57 million in short positions. In a market where shorts are being wiped out, thos

How to sell after a rebound and make money? My strict rules for take profit and stop loss
Those who can buy are apprentices; those who can sell are masters. Why was I able to capture a large profit on ORDI during this rebound? Because I have iron discipline.
Current data: ORDI is quoted at $9.022, reaching a high of $9.50. SATS is quoted at $0.00000002266, with a high of $0.00000002213.
Take profit discipline:
- When it rises 50%, sell two times the initial capital.
- When it rises 100%, sell three times the initial capital.
- For the remaining profit position, set no target price; wait until