# BOJRateHikesBackontheTable

BOJ Tightening, Yen Liquidity & Crypto Risk Allocation Is the Yen Carry Trade Unwind Back on the Table?
JPMorgan’s expectation that the Bank of Japan could hike rates twice in 2025, with policy rates potentially reaching ~1.25% by end-2026, may look modest in isolation. But in a global system built on decades of cheap yen funding, this shift carries outsized implications for cross-asset risk allocation including crypto.
This isn’t just about Japan. It’s about global liquidity plumbing.
Why the Yen Matters More Than Its GDP Share
For years, the Japanese yen has functioned as one of the world’

#BOJRateHikesBackontheTable
JPMorgan Flags BOJ Hikes Could Yen Liquidity Reshape Crypto Risk? My Thoughts and Insights
JPMorgan expects the Bank of Japan to hike rates twice in 2025, pushing policy rates toward 1.25% by end-2026. On the surface, that might sound modest. In reality, for global markets especially crypto this could be a big deal.
Why? Because the yen isn’t just another currency. It’s been the backbone of global cheap liquidity for decades.
Why the Yen Matters More Than It Seems
Japan has been the world’s funding engine. Ultra-low rates turned the yen into the preferred curren

As markets enter the holiday season, liquidity is thinning and volatility is rising and while most attention is on U.S. monetary policy and political developments, there’s another story quietly shaping global risk conditions: Japan. JPMorgan now expects the Bank of Japan to hike rates twice in 2025, potentially pushing policy rates toward 1.25% by the end of 2026. At first glance, these moves may seem modest, but for a market that has relied on decades of ultra-loose monetary policy, even incremental shifts have outsized consequences.
For years, the yen has been the preferred funding currency

🇯🇵 Yen Liquidity, BOJ Rate Hikes, and Crypto Risk Is the Carry Trade Back in Focus?
JPMorgan’s expectation that the Bank of Japan could hike rates twice in 2025, pushing policy rates toward 1.25% by end-2026, is more than a local monetary policy story. It directly raises questions about global liquidity conditions, risk asset funding, and whether a yen carry trade unwind could once again ripple through markets including crypto. My view is that yen liquidity still matters, but the impact will be conditional, not automatic.
Why the Yen Matters to Global Risk Assets
For decades, the yen has f

#BOJRateHikesBackontheTable
JPMorgan’s expectation that the Bank of Japan could raise rates twice in 2025, eventually pushing policy rates toward 1.25% by the end of 2026, is a major shift in the global macro landscape. For decades, Japan’s ultra-loose monetary policy made the yen one of the cheapest funding currencies in the world. That cheap liquidity didn’t stay confined to Japan it flowed into global markets, supporting equities, bonds, and increasingly high-beta assets like crypto. As Japan gradually normalizes policy, the implications extend well beyond domestic markets.
Rising Japanes