Morgan Stanley analysts, including Martijn RATS, said in a report on February 25 that OPEC+ will extend its production quotas at the upcoming meeting, maintaining market balance in the second half of the year. The bank stated that soft economic prospects due to tariffs and counter-tariffs will pressure the outlook, bringing uncertainty to oil demand. The bank expects global oil demand to increase at a rate of about 1 million barrels per day, approaching the lower end of the consensus range. Given that global GDP is below trend levels, slowing population growth, demand pressures, and uncertainties brought by trade tariffs, we doubt that oil demand growth will reach the historical trend level of 1.2 million barrels per day. OECD crude inventories are expected to increase slowly in the first half of the year and then stabilize in the second half, keeping Brent crude prices stable in the mid to low $70 range.
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Morgan Stanley: OPEC+ will maintain production quotas
Morgan Stanley analysts, including Martijn RATS, said in a report on February 25 that OPEC+ will extend its production quotas at the upcoming meeting, maintaining market balance in the second half of the year. The bank stated that soft economic prospects due to tariffs and counter-tariffs will pressure the outlook, bringing uncertainty to oil demand. The bank expects global oil demand to increase at a rate of about 1 million barrels per day, approaching the lower end of the consensus range. Given that global GDP is below trend levels, slowing population growth, demand pressures, and uncertainties brought by trade tariffs, we doubt that oil demand growth will reach the historical trend level of 1.2 million barrels per day. OECD crude inventories are expected to increase slowly in the first half of the year and then stabilize in the second half, keeping Brent crude prices stable in the mid to low $70 range.