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Musk: The "SpaceX Super Heavy Rocket Successful Recovery Probability 78%" on Polymarket is consistent with expectations
On November 18th, prediction market Polymarket released data showing that the probability of the successful recovery of SpaceX's Super Heavy rocket by the "chopsticks" mechanical arm tomorrow has risen to 78%.
SpaceX CEO 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）responded that this prediction is roughly in line with his estimate. He said that with technological progress, the success rate will eventually approach 100%, but it is still in the early stages.