I've been lurking in the group chat for a long time, and I can't help but say: macro stuff transmitting to crypto positions, to put it simply, first look at interest rates and elevate the question of "waiting" to how high it can go. When risk-free interest rates are high, everyone's tolerance for drawdowns decreases, and positions naturally shift from "want to take a gamble" to "just survive." Leverage, long-tail clones, LPs—these are the most emotion-driven—will be drained first.

My current approach is pretty simple: when interest rates rise and risk appetite increases, I treat the "how long I can hold" as a parameter. I prefer to hold small positions and slowly endure, rather than use strategies that seem profitable to cover the false happiness of impermanent loss.

By the way, recently the debate over the compliance boundaries of privacy coins/mixers has become quite heated and divisive. It's actually along the same line: risk premium is changing, and some positions aren't about thinking they're cheap, but about suddenly becoming the kind of person who says "the explanation cost is too high." Anyway, I prefer to see these as tail risks—if I can avoid them, I do, and sleep more peacefully.