Will oil prices take off? Don’t rush! This round between the US and Iran is more like “mutual tough talk,” but the market has already startled itself first

#英特尔与德州仪器大涨
Many people automatically think of a “Second Oil Crisis” when Middle East tensions rise. But the reality is, both the US and Iran are engaging in “edge bargaining”: being tough while leaving room to retreat.
Will the ceasefire break? There may be “partial ruptures,” such as proxy conflict escalation or increased local military friction, but the probability of a full-scale war remains low. Because once a full conflict occurs, the US would face higher fiscal and strategic costs, while Iran would face harsher sanctions or internal pressure.
Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, a complete blockade equals cutting off their own revenue. Iran’s oil exports also depend on this channel, so they are more likely to adopt “controlled disturbances”: causing market tension but not losing complete control.
How will oil prices move? In the short term, focus on sentiment; in the medium term, focus on inventories. If the conflict escalates but doesn’t affect actual supply, oil prices will gradually “discount”; but if transportation disruptions or insurance costs surge, oil prices will enter a trend.
In the stock market, tech stocks may face short-term pressure, while energy stocks benefit. Crypto markets? Sentiment will fluctuate, but liquidity is the key variable.
Summary: The market fears “excessive imagination,” but reality is often more restrained.