I just checked the aSOPR on CryptoQuant and something interesting is happening. The indicator shows a quite clear divergence while Bitcoin hits the lower support of the channel. The curious thing is that despite the price rising from $40K to over $100K since early 2024, the aSOPR marks increasingly lower highs and lows, suggesting that investors are less convinced with each rebound.

More than a third of the Bitcoin supply is currently in loss, according to MorenoDV. Historically, this tends to be bullish in the short term, but here’s the important part: the aSOPR is at a critical point. If the current support fails, we could see a serious capitulation in the market. Bitcoin is currently trading around $77.97K, so we are in territory where any movement could be decisive. It’s worth closely monitoring this level.