Tonight at 10:00 PM, the nomination hearing for the next Federal Reserve Chair of the United States will be held, and their stance will have a key impact on global markets (cryptocurrency, precious metals, equity assets).

Wash's position contrast is the core variable: previously hawkish, advocating anti-inflation measures and opposing rate cuts and easing; recently publicly supporting rate cuts to align with Trump policy expectations, but their true attitude remains unclear.

Four key pieces of information to focus on:

1. Attitude toward inflation, judging whether they are a "true dove" or a "fake dove," which will determine the timing expectations for rate cuts;

2. Stance on balance sheet reduction, as a significant shrinkage of the Fed's balance sheet can have an impact comparable to rate hikes;

3. Response to external pressure for rate cuts, which concerns the Fed's policy independence and future trajectory;

4. Whether they cite AI-driven productivity improvements and inflation suppression as reasons for rate cuts, such statements will directly influence market sentiment.

Asset impacts of different stances:

• Hawkish (emphasizing inflation, rapid balance sheet reduction): dollar strengthens, interest rates rise, gold and silver short-term correction, growth stocks in the US and high-valuation sectors in A-shares face pressure;

• Clear signals of rate cuts: dollar weakens, precious metals rebound, tech growth sectors strengthen, market risk appetite increases;

• Neutral or mixed signals: markets are likely to oscillate first, then choose a direction once signals become clearer.