Bitcoin Pierced $126K – Now One Analyst Says the Drop to $60K Has Begun

A crypto analyst warns BTC’s push past $126,200 was a pivot high, not a breakout, forecasting red May-June with targets at $60K, $49K, and $38,555.

Bitcoin broke above $126,200 on Friday and Saturday. Most traders took that as a signal to get excited. One analyst is reading it very differently.

MooninPapa, posting on X, called the move a pierce of overhead resistance rather than a clean breakout. The short-term support fan is starting to give way, he noted. RSI already completed its role in the move.

His read: this was a pivot high, not a trend change.

The $75,500 Bounce Is a Trap, He Says

Any bounce toward 75,500 dollars, according to MooninPapa on X, looks more like a retest before the next leg lower. The bigger picture, in his view, still points to a red May and June. Sixty thousand dollars feels like the first stop, then 49K. If the full bear market unwind plays out, $38,555 comes into view after that.

He also raised a point that matters for bulls watching weekly charts. Bullish divergences on BTC and TOTALES have printed, yes. But MooninPapa said these have appeared before real bottoms formed in past cycles. He treats them as early signals that need confirmation, not confirmation themselves.

Last week’s upper wick into the fast line looked more like a warning. Not a breakout. That distinction is doing a lot of work in his analysis.

Stablecoin dominance, he added, still looks positioned to push higher on the next Bitcoin pullback. OTHERS already got rejected at the top of the cloud.

ETH Still Weak, DXY Still a Risk

Ethereum is not giving bulls what they wanted either. MooninPapa on X confirmed ETH printed a weekly TBT bullish divergence, but in what he calls a bottom year, that does not automatically shift his view. He still sees a move toward $1,000 as a live scenario.

The macro picture is not offering much relief either. The DXY still looks capable of closing the gap at 99.516, MooninPapa wrote. USDJPY remains a risk factor if that plays out. S&P futures, in his words, look overly euphoric after a large reversal. NK225 looks stretched. WTI, gold, and uranium are all flashing setups worth watching.

None of that reads like a backdrop that supports a crypto rally holding.

Altcoins Getting No Safe Zones

The altcoin watchlist MooninPapa shared on X is short on optimism. BNB is back at a fast line retest. XLM sits in what he calls bullish consolidation but divergence risk is building. HYPE and RENDER look lower after bounce attempts.

AAVE could get a reflex bounce after the exploit-driven flush, he noted. CFX and LDO still look like exhaustion rallies. RAVE, in his words, is pure danger. TAO is interesting later but he prefers to wait for Bitcoin to finish pulling back first.

MNT printed ugly volume on its drop. RIVER and PIPPIN still read like bear market traps.

This type of broad weakness across altcoins fits the pattern MooninPapa is tracking at the BTC level. Stablecoin dominance rising, resistance rejections, divergences printing early. Analysts tracking the Bitcoin midterm election cycle have raised similar flags about deeper corrections playing out through 2026.

The question the market is now sitting with is not whether BTC bounces. It probably will. The question MooninPapa is asking is whether that bounce holds, or whether it hands late buyers another exit before the real move lower begins.

He is betting on the latter.

Disclaimer: This article is based on technical analysis shared by the cited source and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets carry high risk. Always conduct your own research.