Recently, I've seen people compare the line of stablecoin supply to ETF inflows and outflows, and then jump to the conclusion "money is coming/going." I also watch these data, but honestly, correlation does not equal causation: sometimes it's just off-exchange rebalancing, market-making inventory replenishment, or even everyone getting nervous and selling coins first to switch to stablecoins and lie down. On the chart, it looks like "supply is increasing," but in reality, it's just fear, not bullishness.

The ETF side is more like a big faucet; the switch is very obvious, but where the water flows—through which pipe, whether there's a leak, or whether it first circles outside the market—is not easy to see at a glance. Recently, I prefer to go slower and not pay so much gas fees just to chase that quick move.

By the way, the noise around privacy coins/mixing is quite similar: one side shouting for freedom, the other for compliance, and in the end, everyone just wants to use a certain indicator as the answer... but the market doesn't follow such a straightforward causal chain. That's all for now; I can't draw anymore tonight.