Market Overview for April 17: The S&P 500 hits new records for three consecutive days, and the Nasdaq extends its winning streak to twelve days, reaching the highest level since 2009.

Author: Deep Tide TechFlow

U.S. Stocks: Hit new highs for three consecutive days, the fastest V-shaped reversal since 1928

On Thursday, Wall Street continued to run at record highs.

The S&P 500 rose 0.26% to 7,041.28 points, marking the third consecutive day of record highs. The Nasdaq increased 0.36% to 24,102.70 points, rising for the twelfth straight day, the longest streak since 2009, also hitting a new high. The Dow gained 115 points (+0.24%) to 48,578.72 points.

Bespoke Investment Group revealed a shocking statistic: the S&P 500 recovered from a maximum 9% pullback to a new record in just 11 trading days, the fastest V-shaped reversal since records began in 1928.

So far this week, the S&P has gained 3.3%, the Nasdaq 5.2%, and the Dow 1%.

The catalyst for the market’s upward move is a piece of news the market has been waiting weeks for: Israel and Lebanon reached a 10-day ceasefire agreement.

Trump announced on Truth Social that, after speaking with Lebanese President Aoun and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, both sides will officially initiate a 10-day ceasefire at 5 p.m. Eastern Time on Thursday.

This news carries more weight than it appears. Israel’s military actions against Lebanon’s Hezbollah are the direct reason Iran announced it would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s logic is simple: if you (Israel) attack my proxy (Hezbollah), it’s a violation of the ceasefire, so I close the strait. Now that Israel agrees to a ceasefire → Iran loses its last excuse to close the strait → the likelihood of reopening the strait increases significantly → oil prices come under pressure → inflation expectations cool → expectations of rate cuts warm.

The market is also digesting another positive signal: the U.S. and Iran are discussing extending the two-week ceasefire that expires on April 22 through indirect channels. White House spokesperson Levi confirmed that the U.S. is “still deeply involved in negotiations.”

On corporate earnings, PepsiCo rose 0.3% after beating expectations with its Q1 results, and Bank of New York Mellon increased 1.3%. Netflix’s earnings were released after hours.

Regional Fed data sent mixed signals. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index jumped to 26.7 (well above expectations), but the prices paid index surged nearly 15 points to 59.3, while the employment index fell to -5.1. The New York Fed services index remains negative (-14), but the prices paid index soared to 73.8, indicating “a sharp acceleration in input price growth.”

In plain language: economic activity is still okay, but companies’ costs are soaring, and they are cutting jobs to cope. This is a microcosm of stagflation.

Former Fed Governor Loretta Mester candidly said in an interview: “One scenario is that inflation continues to rise. The Fed must be prepared for that.” Currently, federal funds futures are pricing the year-end rate to stay at 3.50%-3.75%, with no rate cut expectations.

Oil prices: $93, as the Lebanon ceasefire removes the last risk premium

WTI fell 1.44% to $93.33 per barrel. Brent slightly rose to $98.34.

The 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon is the main driver of today’s oil price decline. This news removes Iran’s last “justification” for refusing to open the strait—Israel’s attacks on Hezbollah. If Israel stops, Iran’s continued closure of the strait is purely confrontational, with no “Israel violating the ceasefire” excuse to hide behind.

From $116 in mid-March to today’s $93, WTI has fallen 20%. But from the pre-war level of $61, it’s still 53% higher. About half of the war premium has been squeezed out.

Trump expressed optimism about a “permanent ceasefire” after hours, and Bloomberg reports that oil prices further declined in Asian trading. If the ceasefire is extended and the strait begins to open substantially, analysts’ consensus target range is $80-$85, implying another 10-15% downside.

However, State Street’s Aakash Doshi warns: normalizing oil prices to $80-$85 requires the strait to be fully open, which will take at least a month. “The normalization of Middle Eastern oil and gas production is a process that takes several months,” a view first presented in our report two weeks ago and still valid today.

Gold: Steady around $4,822

Gold continues to consolidate near $4,822, with little change.

In an environment where the S&P hits new highs for three days in a row, Lebanon’s ceasefire is reached, and oil drops to $93, gold has not declined. This reaffirms the “double insurance” logic: peace → rate cut expectations → positive for gold. The resistance zone of $4,800-$4,850 is slowly being digested; each day it holds increases the probability of a breakout.

Kevin Warsh’s Senate hearing is scheduled for next Tuesday (April 21). If this Trump-nominated candidate for the next Fed Chair signals dovishness during the hearing, even just a hint of openness to rate cuts, gold could break through $4,850 and surge toward $5,000 within a day.

Cryptocurrency: BTC at $74,000 builds momentum, Lebanon ceasefire opens new space

Bitcoin is consolidating around $74,000, maintaining near post-war highs.

The Lebanon ceasefire’s impact on crypto markets is indirect but profound: Israel stops attacking Hezbollah → Iran loses its excuse to close the strait → Strait likely to reopen → oil prices continue to fall → inflation expectations cool → rate cut expectations warm → liquidity easing narrative returns → BTC benefits. Each link is moving in the right direction.

From a technical perspective, BTC is building a new support level in the $74,000-$75,000 range. This process may take several days of sideways consolidation, but as long as it doesn’t fall below $72,000 support, the upward structure remains intact. The next target zone is $78,000-$80,000.

A macro comparison worth noting: the S&P 500 has already hit a new all-time high (surpassing pre-war levels), the Nasdaq also reached a record high, and the Dow is close to its historical high. But BTC at $74,000 is still 41% below its all-time high of $126,198. This indicates that the “peace premium” in the crypto market has not been fully priced in.

If the ceasefire extension before April 22 is successful and oil prices fall further below $85, BTC has a real chance to challenge $80,000 by the end of April. The FOMC meeting (April 28-29) and Warsh’s hearing (April 21) will provide additional catalysts.

CoinDesk’s previous analysis framework is being validated: “If oil prices continue to fall 15-16%, Bitcoin could hit $80,000.” Oil has already fallen 17% from $112 before the ceasefire to today’s $93.

Summary for today: all bottlenecks are being cleared

What happened this week?

Monday: Islamabad talks collapse + U.S. military blockade of the strait → futures plunge 1% → Trump “got a call” → Dow recovers from -400 to +301.

Tuesday: PPI far below expectations → Nasdaq hits ten consecutive gains → oil crashes 8% → BTC breaks $74,000.

Wednesday: S&P first surpasses 7,000, hitting a record high → Nasdaq closes above 24,000 for the first time → eleven consecutive gains, breaking records.

Thursday: Israel-Lebanon 10-day ceasefire → S&P hits new high for the third day → Nasdaq twelve consecutive gains → oil drops to $93.

Within a week, the market has completed a 180-degree turn from “panic over failed negotiations” to “record-breaking celebration.” The S&P 500 took just 11 days to recover from a 9% pullback to a new high, the fastest since 1928.

Next Tuesday, Warsh testifies before the Senate. Next Tuesday/Wednesday, the ceasefire expires on April 22. These two dates will determine whether this rebound is the start of a new bull market or the last clear day before a storm.