Gold at $4,791 · Silver at $78, setting new highs... War · Ceasefire · Weakening dollar simultaneously pushing prices higher

The international gold price is trading around $4,791.10 per ounce, continuing its high-level trend approaching historic highs. Silver is quoted at $78.68 per ounce, maintaining an absolute high-range level similar to gold. Due to the lack of publicly available daily market data, the exact daily price fluctuations are limited, but both metals have recently shown a trend of reaffirming high levels amid increased volatility. Gold and silver generally moved in similar directions on the day, but there are subtle differences in their underlying price formation backgrounds. Traditionally, gold is regarded as a strong safe-haven asset against war, financial turmoil, and currency value fluctuations, while silver, as a precious metal, also has significant use in photovoltaic and electronic industries, making it more sensitive to economic cycles and manufacturing trends. Therefore, under easing geopolitical tensions, the safe-haven demand for gold may partially subside, while when economic recovery expectations become prominent, silver prices often show relatively stronger performance—this pattern recurs repeatedly. In the exchange-traded fund (ETF) market, gold ETF SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) and silver ETF iShares Silver Trust (SLV) both seem to reflect spot price movements and fluctuate accordingly. Specific closing prices and daily changes could not be confirmed due to the need for API access, but generally, the prices of GLD and SLV not only reflect the day’s spot market but also indicate investors’ risk appetite and risk aversion. Gold and silver ETFs are tools that expose investors to price fluctuations without directly purchasing physical metals, thus also serving as indicators of short-term supply and demand changes. Recently, after the outbreak of war in the Middle East following preemptive attacks by the US and Israel against Iran, gold prices surged sharply. As news of a ceasefire emerged, geopolitical tensions eased, becoming an important background factor for price movements. When Iran shifted from a full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz to a selective blockade, U.S. President Trump increased pressure on allies including South Korea to deploy troops, which also became a market-discussed variable. These military and diplomatic developments are believed to stimulate safe-haven asset preferences but also bring about pullback pressures during periods of easing tensions. The People’s Bank of China has been net buying gold for 17 consecutive months, increasing holdings to around 2,500 tons. The global central bank trend of increasing gold reserves, such as Russia boosting its gold holdings to counter Western sanctions, is also mentioned as part of the background for price formation. The renminbi reached a three-year high after the Iran ceasefire, coupled with a weakening dollar trend, which also influences dollar-denominated gold prices through currency factors. Regarding the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy direction, there is a market consensus that if Middle East conflicts reignite oil price and inflation pressures, interest rate adjustments could become more complex. Expectations of rate cuts, geopolitical risks, and the possibility of a weaker dollar are all discussed, leading to a situation where gold and silver prices reflect a mix of safe-haven demand and risk appetite recovery signals. There are also differences in the reactions between the spot market and ETF market. Physical gold and silver are heavily influenced by structural factors such as central bank purchases, jewelry and industrial demand, and long-term holding tendencies, while ETFs like GLD and SLV are more sensitive to short-term trading and capital flows, often showing greater intraday volatility. Even within the same day, spot prices may fluctuate within a limited range, but ETF prices can experience significant swings during trading hours, sometimes temporarily widening the gap between the two markets. The current price trend of gold and silver is interpreted as a chaotic situation where safe-haven and risk assets coexist near high points. The alternating war and ceasefire in the Middle East, central banks’ gold purchases driven by de-dollarization considerations, the strengthening of the renminbi and selling of the dollar, and discussions on Fed rate cuts collectively create an atmosphere of defensive characteristics and cautious sentiment. Gold and silver are assets highly sensitive to interest rates, exchange rates, monetary policies of various countries, war, sanctions, diplomatic conflicts, and other geopolitical variables. Given this sensitivity, short-term volatility may expand, and the market generally recognizes that future trends could fluctuate at any time with changes in macroeconomic indicators and international situations.