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Prediction market open interest just hit $1B for the first time since Nov 2024.
Four events are driving it simultaneously:
• Masters Golf Tournament
• NBA Playoffs (sports notional volume is ~$4B on all PMs)
• U.S.-Iran geopolitical events
• 2026 Midterms (open positions that won't resolve until November)
Most of these markets take time to resolve, so capital gets locked in open positions for longer.
The playoffs run 6-7 weeks.
Midterms don't close until November.
Geopolitical markets stay open until tensions get resolved.
That's why OI keeps compounding.
Bernstein (a Wall Street research firm) projected $240B in annual prediction market volume by the end of 2026.
Tbh, it looks conservative with the current OI numbers.