Private sector employment in the U.S. has increased for four consecutive weeks... The Federal Reserve's "interest rate cut" expectations are wavering.

U.S. private employment has maintained strong growth for four consecutive weeks. According to preliminary NER pulse data released by ADP, over the four weeks ending March 28, 2026, U.S. private employers added an average of 39,250 jobs per week.

This data is interpreted as an indicator showing that the U.S. labor market remains “resilient.” Recently, markets have been closely examining the interest rate path and the possibility of economic slowdown, while stable growth in private employment is seen as a sign that consumer and business activity have not sharply declined.

The NER pulse, compiled by ADP Research and Stanford Digital Economy Laboratory, is a seasonally adjusted four-week moving average indicator. However, due to a two-week statistical lag, it is more focused on smoothing short-term employment trends as a reference metric. This release includes data from the past 12 weeks.

Market attention is directly linked to employment-related indicators and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook. If private employment growth continues, it may partly ease concerns about an economic recession, but it could also suppress the rapidly rising expectations for rate cuts. Recently, financial markets are analyzing employment, wage, and price indicators comprehensively to assess the likelihood of the U.S. economy achieving a “soft landing.”

This preliminary ADP NER pulse uses a weekly average baseline, differing from traditional monthly employment reports. Nonetheless, four consecutive weeks of strong employment growth provide a basis for judging that the U.S. labor market has not yet entered a clear slowdown phase.

The next NER pulse is expected to be released on April 21, 2026. If subsequent releases show a similar trend, the resilience of the U.S. employment market is likely to remain a key variable influencing overall market sentiment in the short term.

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