Short-term (remaining April): It is expected that gold prices will remain within a wide range of $4,660-$4,820, with around $4,800 being a key technical resistance zone. A breakout upward requires both the Middle East negotiations to break down (risk aversion reignited) and U.S. economic data to show clear signs of weakening (interest rate cut expectations warming), which currently seems unlikely; downward movement should focus on the critical support level of $4,665-$4,670, and if this is broken, it may confirm a short-term correction pattern.

Medium-term: The true direction depends on the evolution of two core variables—1. Whether the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations can rebound (requiring sustained cooling of inflation data or a significant weakening of the employment market), 2. Whether the Middle East situation moves toward "periodic stability" or "further escalation." Central bank gold purchases and the de-dollarization process form the basis for a long-term upward shift in gold prices, but short-term volatility will still be intense.