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There is an older brother on WSB who lost $100k on Energy Fuels, then decided to go all-in on Microsoft.
His logic is: Microsoft is the biggest loser in Mag 7 this year, so it is undervalued.
The reason for Microsoft's decline this year is very specific.
Software stocks as a whole are collapsing.
IGV has fallen 21% this year.
The SaaS sector is even worse, down nearly 40%.
As the world's largest enterprise software company, Microsoft's stock price is tied to the fate of SaaS.
AI is eating into the traditional software market—40% of IT budgets are shifting from SaaS subscriptions to AI agent platforms and large model token consumption.
Microsoft is also working on AI.
Copilot, Azure OpenAI, GitHub Copilot—they are all eating their own lunch at the same time.
The question is: can the new revenue brought by AI cover the revenue lost from traditional software erosion?
In the short term, the answer is no.
WSB-style "buy the dip when it falls too much" has some margin of safety at the level of Mag 7 companies.
Microsoft is not UUUU; it won't go to zero.
But the mentality of losing $100k and then going all-in to turn things around is itself a warning sign.
Losing $100k and then going all-in on the stock that has fallen the most—this is not investment analysis; it's casino psychology.