Lately, I've noticed that Bitcoin's volatility index is rising sharply. Last week, DVOL, which had dropped to 26%, surged up to 37. It's historically a sign that a significant price move is imminent when volatility spikes to this level.

Over the weekend, BTC went from 116,000 to 122,000, and it's interesting that this isn't solely due to leverage. Looking at on-chain data, this rally is mainly driven by spot trading, indicating a relatively healthy market structure. Open interest continues to decrease, so if volatility increases further, a sudden influx of leverage could cause even greater price swings.

I remember that in August 2023, volatility was similarly low before Bitcoin experienced a sharp rally. I think a similar pattern might be happening now. The current price is around $73.28K, and I believe we should keep an eye on how the volatility index moves.