Five different data sources are giving the same signal: demand structure in Bitcoin is weakening. Institutions are making purchases at near-record levels through (ETFs and strategies), but large whales and miners are selling far more than the market can handle at the same time. According to CryptoQuant data at the end of March, the 30-day net demand is minus 63,000 BTC. That is, while institutions bought 94,000 BTC, the rest of the market sold 157,000 BTC.

There is a striking shift in whale behavior. Wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC accumulated 200,000 BTC a year ago, now they are reducing by 188,000 BTC. Nearly 400,000 BTC has shifted in 18 months. Medium-level investors have also slowed their accumulation — a 60% decrease since October 2025.

The realized price is around $54,286, while the spot price is $73,640. This 21% premium is rapidly closing. The premium was 120% at the end of 2024, now it is compressed to 21%. The Fear and Greed Index is in the extreme fear zone (8-14), but ETFs attracted over a billion dollars in inflows in March — this combination is unusual.

Bitcoin has been fluctuating between $65,000 and $73,000 over the past five weeks. News from Iran caused upward and downward swings, then it returned to the initial level. With each rally, there is selling; with each dip, there is buying. The dominant strategy has become to hold no position at all.

Since October, the decline is about 47% — much less than the 84-87% crashes in 2013 and 2017 peaks. Analysts see this as a sign of market maturity. Morgan Stanley received approval this week for a new Bitcoin ETF with a 0.14% transaction fee. Strategy’s preferred stock product also funds monthly purchases. If this channel continues and accelerates, it could become a new source of buying.