#Gate广场四月发帖挑战

WLD (Worldcoin) is currently at the extreme end of a highly weak downward channel, with the price struggling near historical lows. Combined with the "anti-liquidation" strategy, WLD is a high-risk danger zone, and extreme caution is advised.

Core point: "Bottoming out" before all negative news is exhausted

Current price situation: approximately $0.26 - $0.28 (down about 97% from the all-time high), on the verge of being a "penny stock."

Trend judgment: Bearish dominance. On the daily chart, it has been in a downward channel for nearly 6 months, with no clear bottom reversal signal yet.

Fundamentals: Unlock pressure is the main drag

Long-term positive: Starting July 24, 2026, daily unlock volume will decrease from 5.1 million tokens to 2.9 million tokens (-43%), but this is a distant water and cannot save the immediate fire.

Recent reality: Still in a high linear unlock period, with recent massive off-exchange selling, continuously suppressing the price.

Technical analysis: The death line is at $0.24

Key support: $0.2415 (historical previous low). If the daily close effectively breaks below this level, a new downtrend will open, targeting $0.20.

Key resistance: $0.30 - $0.31 (upper boundary of the channel). Only a volume breakout here can declare the short-term downtrend paused, with a target of $0.40.

Weekend market projection

In view of the "black swan prevention" principle, WLD is a high-risk asset over the weekend, prone to price spikes due to liquidity exhaustion.

Most probable scenario (bearish grind): Price oscillates in the $0.25 - $0.28 range with low volume. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and avoid participating in this "loom" market.

Less probable scenario (breakdown and decline): If volume breaks below the key support at $0.2415, it will accelerate the search for a bottom. If holding spot, a decisive stop-loss is necessary if it breaks down.

Rare scenario (oversold rebound): If it can stabilize above $0.285 and push towards $0.30, a technical rebound may occur. But this is only suitable for aggressive traders who trade in and out quickly, with tight stop-losses.

Final strategic advice

Spot: Not recommended to bottom-fish. WLD's fundamentals carry huge uncertainty; bottoming on the left side is like "catching a flying knife."

Futures: Strictly no long positions. Before effectively breaking above $0.31, any rebound is a potential shorting opportunity, but weekend liquidity is poor, so it’s best to stay in cash and observe.

Key observation point: Focus on the defense at $0.2415 over the weekend. A quick recovery after a false break is a possible bottoming signal.

Reiteration: WLD is a "sentiment + selling pressure" double-kill target, not suitable for conservative defensive strategies. It is recommended to focus on range trading with BTC/ETH and stay away from such highly volatile and fundamentally doubtful altcoins.