A "Climactic Negotiation" That Will Decide Gold's Future Direction

This weekend's most market-moving event is the closed-door talks between the U.S. and Iran on Saturday in Islamabad. Just one day after both sides reached a 14-day ceasefire agreement on April 7, the situation reversed again—Trump's team directly threw Iran's proposed 10-point agreement into the trash bin and issued tough threats again on social media. Meanwhile, the U.S. has been loudly claiming to be the "winner" of the strait and should control the benefits, with both sides refusing to back down.

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1. Gold Bulls and Bears: Don't Bet on a Single Side, Be a Prepared Hunter

The current core trading range for gold remains at $4,700–$4,800, and neither side can determine the outcome in one move. Friday's close was at $4,746.9, up 1.6% for the week, marking the third consecutive week of gains. This indicates bullish resilience, but the aggressive buying desire is noticeably weaker than before.

Key support: around 4700–4715. This is the critical support level where the daily Bollinger middle band and the 4-hour Bollinger middle band resonate. As long as it holds, the upside potential remains significant.

Key resistance: 4780–4800 is the ceiling, with 4856 (this week's high) as a high-pressure zone. If positive news exceeds expectations over the weekend, the limit could extend to 4900–5000; if it breaks below the strong support at 4700, the next test will be at 4640–4600.

U.S. CPI data shows that March CPI increased by 0.9% month-on-month, with core CPI up only 0.2%. Short-term rate cut bets have increased, but market expectations for rate cuts this year remain only about 24%.

Gold trading strategy: Avoid gambling on a one-sided guess. Geopolitical news over the weekend can be easily amplified, and combined with liquidity shortages, large gaps are quite possible. Both bulls and bears should set boundaries—if it breaks above 4800, follow bullish momentum toward 4850–4900; if it falls below 4700, risk-off positions will be triggered, and existing profits should be protected with a temporary pause.

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2. The "Restless" in the Watchlist

1️⃣ Silver—Silver rose slightly by 0.45% on Friday, up 3.86% for the week. The MACD has just formed a golden cross with a gentle increase in the red histogram, indicating steady bullish momentum, with volume still moderate but attention remains. The gold-silver ratio has fallen back to 62.73, suggesting silver's short-term elasticity may outperform gold.

2️⃣ U.S. Treasuries and the Dollar—The dollar index fell 1.4% this week, clearly retreating from high levels, providing direct support for dollar-denominated gold. If positive news emerges from weekend negotiations, the dollar could weaken further, pushing gold higher.

3️⃣ Crude Oil (Observation Level)—WTI crude fell 14.26% this week, marking its worst weekly performance since 2020, currently at $95.63. However, if negotiations break down or the Strait of Hormuz is blocked again, oil prices could rebound violently. Currently, oil volatility far exceeds other assets, and ordinary investors should avoid shorting risks, especially holding heavy positions over the weekend.

4️⃣ Crypto Assets (Short-term speculative level)—Bitcoin is currently at $72,976, with the Fear & Greed Index at only 15, in extreme fear. But Bollinger Bands have narrowed to the lowest since early 2024, indicating a potential ±40% volatility buildup, waiting for a trigger. If Iran's plan to collect tolls via BTC in the Strait of Hormuz gains traction over the weekend, it could become the biggest short-term positive catalyst for the crypto market.

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3. Key Events to Watch Over the Weekend

🔥 Black Swan—Highly likely to trigger suddenly over the weekend:

· U.S.-Iran Negotiation Collapse: Although both sides confirmed talks would start Saturday in Islamabad, Iran's delegation only arrived in Pakistan on the morning of the 11th, leaving a very short window. Coupled with previous incidents where "agreements were directly thrown into the trash," a breakdown could prolong the Strait of Hormuz blockade. If the strait is fully closed again, oil prices will spike violently, with gold initially jumping on safe-haven impulses, but inflation expectations will rise again, possibly pushing U.S. bond yields higher, creating a "first pull-up, then push-down" double squeeze on gold.
· Israel's Airstrikes on Lebanon Escalate: Iran has stated that Israel's continued attacks on Lebanon—including the most intense airstrikes this week—remain a key obstacle. Israel may launch new actions over the weekend, potentially shattering the fragile ceasefire.

🕊️ Long-term Phoenix—Potential Mid-Long Term Takeoff:

· Unexpected Agreement Framework: If the U.S. team led by Vance reaches substantive progress with Iran over the weekend, the Strait of Hormuz could gradually reopen. This would be the most urgent "stabilizer" for global markets—oil prices continue to fall, the dollar weakens further, and gold faces short-term pressure but the medium- and long-term logic becomes clearer (inflation expectations decline, rate cut space opens).
· Central Bank Gold Purchases: China's official gold reserves at the end of March stood at 74.38 million ounces, increasing for the 17th consecutive month, with other central banks also maintaining buying interest. If new gold purchase news emerges over the weekend, it will support long-term bottom positions in gold.

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Summary and Positioning Advice

Conservative: Currently, bullish and bearish forces are highly balanced, and weekend variables are significant. It’s better to hold no positions or very light positions over the holiday. Wait until next week’s open to clarify the direction before acting—more rational than blindly betting on gaps based on news.

Aggressive: If you must hold positions, consider: buy low around 4700 with a stop-loss at 4680, avoid chasing highs; for silver, watch for a rebound and stabilization near 74.5; for crypto assets, wait until extreme panic causes a dip before considering right-side entries. Any operation should have strict stop-losses, as weekend "black swans" may not be a one-time event.
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