Middle East Situation Report | April 9

The US and Iran reached a two-week ceasefire agreement at the last minute, but on the first day of the ceasefire, the IDF launched a large-scale airstrike on Lebanon, and the passage status of the Strait of Hormuz fluctuates repeatedly. The fragile truce faces multiple tests.

1. US-Iran Ceasefire: Reached at the Last Moment, Both Sides Claim Victory

On the evening of April 7 local time, just about an hour and a half before the deadline set by Trump for Iran, the US, Israel, and Iran successively announced acceptance of a two-week ceasefire. Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz confirmed on April 8 that Iran, the US, and their respective allies agreed to an immediate ceasefire in all regions, including Lebanon, "effective immediately," and welcomed further negotiations in Islamabad on the 10th.

Both sides claim victory. Trump stated that the US "has achieved and exceeded all military objectives," and Iran also said that "almost all goals have been achieved" in the war, with the enemy suffering a "historic defeat." Trump also announced that any country supplying military weapons to Iran would face an immediate 50% tariff increase on all goods sold to the US.

The ten ceasefire terms announced by Iran's Supreme National Security Council include: controlled passage through the Strait of Hormuz, acceptance of Iran's uranium enrichment activities, lifting all primary and secondary sanctions, US withdrawal of combat troops from the Middle East, payment of compensation to Iran, and cessation of all wars on fronts including Lebanon. However, the US did not accept all terms, and Trump stated that Iran's ten-point proposal "can serve as a basis for negotiations."

The international community generally welcomed the ceasefire. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning on April 8 expressed that China welcomes the announcement of the ceasefire arrangement and supports mediation efforts by Pakistan and other countries. UN Secretary-General Guterres also issued a statement urging all parties to abide by the ceasefire terms.

2. Cracks on the First Day of Ceasefire: Israel Launches Heavy Attacks on Lebanon, Iran Says Negotiation Foundation Is Damaged

On the first day of the ceasefire, the IDF launched its largest airstrike on Lebanon's Hezbollah since this round of conflict began, with 50 fighter jets striking 100 targets within 10 minutes, resulting in at least 254 deaths and 1,165 injuries. The Israeli Prime Minister's Office issued a statement saying the ceasefire does not include Lebanon. Trump also clearly stated in an interview that the two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran does not include Lebanon and Hezbollah.

Iran responded strongly. Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani on April 8 said that three key points among Iran's ten ceasefire terms had been violated—including the breach of Lebanon's ceasefire commitment, the downing of a drone that entered Iranian airspace, and the US denying Iran's right to uranium enrichment—damaging the "basis for negotiations." Iran has made it clear to mediators that it will only hold talks in Pakistan if a ceasefire is achieved in Lebanon; if Israel continues attacks on Lebanon, Iran will consider withdrawing from the ceasefire agreement.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement warning that if attacks on Lebanon do not stop immediately, Iran will respond in a way that makes the aggressors regret it. The Iranian military has begun identifying targets for retaliation against Israel.

3. Strait of Hormuz: Passage Status Fluctuates, Large-Scale Resumption Still Takes Time

The Strait of Hormuz is the core issue of this ceasefire. Iranian Foreign Minister Amir Abdollahian announced that during the ceasefire, ships can coordinate with Iranian armed forces for safe passage through the strait "under technical restrictions." On April 8, MarineTraffic recorded the first ships passing through the strait after the US and Iran agreed to the ceasefire, including the "NJ Earth" and "Daytona Beach."

However, after Israel attacked Lebanon, Iran immediately halted oil tanker traffic through the strait. Maritime tracking data shows that an oil tanker heading toward the strait suddenly changed course near the Oman coast and returned to the Persian Gulf. Iran also released a safe navigation route map for the strait, advising ships to follow safety principles and avoid mines.

Several Chinese sailors trapped in the Persian Gulf told media that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps still strictly controls the Strait of Hormuz, requiring ships to obtain a permit before passing. Some sailors said, "Iranian military radioed us that if we pass without a permit, we will be attacked."

According to MarineTraffic data, 426 oil tankers, 34 liquefied petroleum gas carriers, and 19 liquefied natural gas carriers remain stranded in the Persian Gulf. Since the conflict began on February 28, 21 attacks on commercial shipping have been confirmed, causing 10 deaths among seafarers. Danish Maersk has stated that the ceasefire does not yet fully guarantee safe passage and that related routes are temporarily not being resumed. Hapag-Lloyd previously predicted that normal operation of the Hormuz shipping network would take 6 to 8 weeks to restore.

4. Yemen and the Red Sea: US and UK Airstrikes on Houthi Forces, Israel Navy Attacks Hodeidah Port

Houthi forces continue to attack targets related to Israel. The Israeli military detected missile launches by the Houthis, claiming they fired ballistic missiles carrying cluster munitions toward southern Israel.

On the morning of April 10 local time, the Israeli Navy missile ship attacked Houthi targets at the port of Hodeidah in Yemen. The IDF said the strike was in response to previous missile and drone attacks by the Houthis toward Israel, aiming to prevent the port from being used for military purposes. Israeli Defense Minister Gantz warned the Houthis that if they continue firing at Israel, they will face strong responses and maritime and air blockades.

Meanwhile, the US-UK coalition recently launched a new round of large-scale airstrikes on the Houthi-controlled capital Sanaa and surrounding areas, targeting military airports, radar stations, and missile depots. Houthi spokesperson said that the Red Sea and Arabian Sea shipping lanes are currently safe, and US claims that these waters are threatened are misleading the world and attempting to militarize the Red Sea.

5. Iraq and Syria: Resistance Groups Continue Attacks on US Bases, Iraqi Militias Halt and Then Change Course

After the ceasefire announcement, Iraqi militias' "Islamic Resistance Organization" initially issued a statement saying they would suspend their operations in Iraq and the Middle East for two weeks. However, after Israel continued attacks on Lebanon, Secretary-General Ekram Kabi of the organization issued a statement on the evening of April 8, saying that due to Israel's disregard and violation of the ceasefire, they would respond "forcefully," and "Israel will pay the price for its treachery."

Before the ceasefire, US military bases in Syria and Iraq continued to be targeted by drone attacks. Khareel Air Force Base, the Kasrak military facility in Hasakah Province, and others were attacked. Iraqi armed groups also claimed drone attacks on US bases in Kuwait, Jordan, and Syria. Additionally, a mortar shell hit the US consulate in Iraq.

6. Other Developments

Lebanon Situation: Large-scale Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon caused