From a broader perspective, BTC is far from being overvalued. Compared to the 126K level, it is now clearly more suitable for gradual accumulation of BTC, as most of the supply in the market was in profit at that time. Currently, most of the supply is in loss. Historically, when the majority of supply is in loss, it often presents a good opportunity for long-term accumulation of BTC.

However, in each cycle, it usually takes several months of sustained loss to form a macro bottom, and a new low cannot be ruled out. When 50% or more of the total supply is in loss, BTC is often close to a macro bottom.
Approaching the 60% level can be seen as the optimal opportunity zone. During the most recent decline, this indicator reached a level of 45%. It is expected to reach 50%-60% at some point, which should align with the upper boundary of my long-term dollar-cost averaging zone and the appearance of some long-term buy signals. I will buy when most of the supply has been in loss for a long time, which is usually accompanied by a time-based sell-off phase, allowing us to profit from it. This also reduces the risk of a large amount of chips being sold after we build our position, and historically, this situation has often occurred after BTC drops at least 60%-70% from its high. #Gate广场四月发帖挑战