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Just came across this fascinating historical theory about market cycles that's been making rounds lately. It's based on work by Samuel Benner, an Ohio farmer from the 1800s, who tried to map out periods when to make money by analyzing past economic patterns. Honestly, some of the observations are pretty interesting to think about.
So basically, Benner identified three repeating periods in economic cycles. The first is when panics and financial crises hit - years like 1927, 1945, 1965, 1981, 1999, 2019, and supposedly 2035. These are the danger zones where you want to be cautious. Then there are the boom years with high prices - think 1926, 1935, 1945, 1955, 1962, 1972, 1980, 1989, 1998, 2007, 2016, 2026. This is when he suggested selling assets to lock in profits.
The third type covers the periods when to make money by buying - the down years when prices are low. Those include 1924, 1931, 1942, 1951, 1958, 1969, 1978, 1985, 1995, 2006, 2011, 2023, 2030, 2041, 2050, 2059. According to the theory, you'd accumulate during these phases and wait for the recovery.
What's wild is the pattern seems to repeat roughly every 18 years for major panics, every 9-11 years for prosperity peaks, and every 7-10 years for buying opportunities. It's like a rhythm to the market that keeps repeating.
Looking at it practically - you'd buy when prices are crushed, hold through the recovery, then sell when everything's euphoric. The timing matters, obviously. And yeah, 2023 was supposed to be one of those buying windows, 2026 (where we are now) lines up as a potential selling period according to this theory, and 2035 shows up as both a peak AND a panic year, which could signal something significant.
I'm not saying this is gospel - it's a 150-year-old theory with mixed accuracy. But the cyclical thinking is worth keeping in mind when you're trying to figure out the best periods when to make money. The key takeaway is recognizing that markets do tend to move in waves, and understanding those waves can help with your timing.