Tonight, BTC remains cautious and leans toward short-term downside.

The reasons aren’t complicated. In the past 24 hours, external risks have not truly eased: on one side, Middle East ceasefire expectations have slightly improved US stock futures tonight, giving the market a breather; but on the other side, traders have continued to push back expectations for the Fed to cut rates this year, indicating that the pressure from high interest rates is still there. Added to that, the attacks on Russia’s energy facilities from Russia and Ukraine are still ongoing, and the disturbances in oil prices and inflation have not fully passed.
For BTC, the most troublesome part of this environment is that risk sentiment can recover a bit, but liquidity has not loosened noticeably. Even if US stocks rebound, it doesn’t mean crypto can immediately turn stronger—especially when safe-haven and inflation trades start to pick up again, since funds are more likely to go to gold, energy, and defensive sectors first, not necessarily return to BTC right away.
If tonight into tomorrow there is no new ETF incremental demand and no upside catalyst beyond expectations, then BTC will most likely remain range-bound but weak overall; rebounds are more like repairs than a starting point for a new upswing. In the short term, it still leans downward—first watch whether the support below can hold. If it can’t, the market will look for an even lower level again. #Gate广场四月发帖挑战