I do not believe traditional markets are adequately pricing in the risk of an energy-driven recession or even depression across Asia and Europe

If risk were properly reflected, equities would likely be down 20–30%, and the 10-year yield closer to 5.5%
In that scenario, I would feel far more confident calling a bottom and buying dips. As it stands, it feels as though bulls are sleepwalking into a trap, anchored to the assumption that “nothing ever happens”
In my view, there is still more downside ahead
Bull trap