Bitcoin (BTC) — Institutions “Buy the Dip” Amid Geopolitical Panic

On April 6, 2026, after weekend turbulence, Bitcoin surged straight up, breaking through the $69,000 level. The rebound during the day was about +3%, and the week’s decline narrowed significantly. As of the time of writing, BTC is at $69,208, with a 24-hour gain of about 2.6% to 3.1%. Meanwhile, the entire market saw about $80 million worth of liquidations, with longs accounting for 65%, and the weekend panic positioning went through a round of concentrated clearing.

On the macro front, over the weekend, Trump continued to send hardline signals—he set April 7 as “Iran’s power plant day and bridge day,” implying the possibility of launching a severe attack on Iran’s energy facilities and key infrastructure. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps responded on social media, saying that “the Strait of Hormuz will never return to its former state, especially for the United States and Israel.” Blocked passage through the Strait of Hormuz pushed U.S. oil futures up more than 3% at the start, briefly climbing above $115 per barrel. However, against this backdrop, Bitcoin rose against the trend, indicating that the market is re-pricing geopolitical risk.

On-chain data shows that exchange Bitcoin reserves fell to a 2-year low (-12%). The number of addresses of long-term holders increased by 5%, indicating that “smart money” has continued to accumulate even amid panic. As for ETFs, Bitcoin spot ETFs have had net inflows for 3 consecutive days, totaling over $600 million, and BlackRock’s IBIT attracted $180 million in a single day. In the past 30 days, Strategy bought 45,000 BTC, marking the highest monthly net accumulation since April 2025.

The Fear and Greed Index is only 13, staying in the “Extreme Fear” range, and it has been in that state for more than 17 consecutive days, setting the longest fear cycle since 2026. Historical patterns suggest that when market sentiment is extremely bearish and on-chain capital continues to flow in, it often means that a medium- to long-term bottom area is forming.

Current MVRV is about 1.26, close to fair value; NUPL is 0.20, in the “Hope phase.” From on-chain cost bases, the realized price is $54,200, and the current price is far above this level, meaning the market is generally in profit. The key support level is $65,000 (the on-chain large transfer cost range). If it holds, there could be a rebound to $72,000. If it breaks, investors should beware of sliding into the liquidity vacuum zone around $60,000. The liquidation heatmap shows that around $64,800 is the next dense long liquidation cluster; if it is touched, it could trigger a chain reaction of liquidations totaling about $500 million.
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In the short term, the market is experiencing a “battle of data”: geopolitical risk boosts demand for hedging, but institutional funds are providing ongoing support through ETFs. If tomorrow’s U.S. CPI data comes in hotter than expected, it may weigh on risk assets. Overall, the current price range has medium- to long-term allocation value, but leveraged trading must be handled with extra caution.

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