$ETH ‌ Another wave of rebound has caused anxiety again, panic again, confusion again, and some even say the bull market has started.

Isn't it still within the channel? The larger-scale channel marked is unclear, so after marking it, switch to a smaller scale to observe.
Both bullish and bearish signals are correct, but they must meet certain conditions. For bullish signals, you need to break above key levels; for bearish signals, you need to break below key levels. Isn't this just consolidation?
The technical outlook hasn't yet broken out of the range. Let's check macro news—has the Middle East situation eased?
No, it hasn't. The two most relevant indicators recently are: oil prices haven't fallen, gold prices haven't risen, and risk appetite hasn't recovered. So why the anxiety? Why the hesitation? Has the overall trend changed? No.
The macro environment still exerts pressure. At 8 a.m., Japan's 10-year government bond yield hit a new high—its highest since 1999! This is also macro pressure, a rate-related issue, signaling a tightening of funds.
The core logic is: when interest rates rise, it means you previously found the yen interest rate was low—very low. Damn, this cheapness is not to be missed. So you borrow yen to buy US stocks, Bitcoin, or assets that can generate returns, earning the spread—that's carry trading.
Later, when you find the yen interest rate has risen and is no longer favorable, you sell the assets bought with borrowed yen, convert back to yen, and repay Japan. This is called closing the carry trade.
The final result of this cycle is: capital flows into Japan, leaving certain assets (unsure which assets).
I prefer right-side trading, so I pay more attention to right-side signals. If you're a left-side trader or short-term intraday trader, you can ignore this post. #ETH #BTC #Gate广场四月发帖挑战