4.6 Gold Morning Analysis

Last week, gold surged then retreated sharply. After touching the 4800 level, it pulled back significantly, with the low reaching 4461, and the weekly line closed at 4675. In the morning session, the weakness continued: it opened with a dip to the 4600 level, which temporarily held as support, and overall price action remained in a broad range of fluctuations.

This round of retracement is driven by the simultaneous impact of two negative factors: the non-farm data greatly exceeded expectations, and market expectations for rate cuts cooled significantly; combined with related statements applying pressure, bearish sentiment was strengthened. The US dollar and US Treasury yields rose in tandem, weighing on non-yielding gold, with short-term sellers in a favorable position.

Technically speaking, the 1-hour upward trendline has been broken, and the pullback from the high has formed a short-term topping pattern. 4800 above acts as strong resistance, making it difficult for a short-term breakout. Below, 4538-4482 is a key support area for the bulls, and it is also the medium-term line separating strength and weakness.

Recommendation: A pullback to the 4580-4600 range can be used for low buy entries, looking for a rebound and recovery, with targets at 4650-4680.
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