Dual Asset Resonance: The Underlying Logic and Trading Strategies Behind Bitcoin and Crude Oil's Joint Rise

1. Latest Market Overview

Bitcoin (BTC): Currently at $68,702.70, up +2.09% in the past 24 hours, +3.83% over the past 7 days; previously touched $68,484.4.

Ethereum (ETH): Currently at $2,118.45, up +2.66% in the past 24 hours, +6.8% over the past 7 days.

Crude Oil: At the start of Asian trading on Monday, WTI crude futures were at $113.57 per barrel, Brent crude futures at $110.41 per barrel. Spot Brent crude oil prices once surged to $141.37 per barrel, hitting a new high since the 2008 financial crisis.

2. The Underlying Logic of Simultaneous Asset Rise

(1) Why Did Crude Oil Surge?

· Substantial Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz: Ongoing conflict for about 40 days, maritime navigation nearly halted, approximately 20 million barrels of oil transported daily are blocked, representing a physical supply chain break.

· OPEC+ Production Increase Insufficient: On April 5, OPEC+ eight countries announced a production increase of 206k barrels per day starting May, only about 2% of the supply gap, unable to compensate for actual losses.

· US-Iran Deadline Approaching on April 6: Trump set a final deadline for Iran to open the Strait, but Iran has rejected key US demands, negotiations look bleak, and risk premiums continue to push oil prices higher.

(2) Why Is Bitcoin Rising in Tandem?

· Repricing of Geopolitical Tail Risks: When the Strait is closed and spot oil prices soar to $141, market pricing shifts from “oil prices → inflation → rate hike expectations” to “supply chain disruption → sovereign risk,” leading to a revaluation of Bitcoin’s non-sovereign attribute, with gold also strengthening.

· Marginal Improvement in ETF Capital Flows: On April 5, ten Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $203 million, corresponding to about 3,011 BTC entering ETF custody addresses; in March, a net inflow of $1.32 billion was achieved, ending four consecutive months of outflows.

· Bottom Signal Amid Extreme Fear: The Fear & Greed Index hovers between 10-12 (extreme fear), but prices have not collapsed simultaneously. This divergence, where “price leads sentiment,” is viewed by some analysts as a typical bottom indicator.

3. Key Levels and Trading Strategies

Bitcoin (BTC)

Long Strategy: Gradually build positions in the $65,000-$66,500 range, with strong psychological support at $65,000, supported by ETF fund inflows. Strict stop-loss if below $65,000.

Chasing Gains: Confirm a breakout above $70,000 with a pullback for entry; once stabilized, target $72,600-$76,200; exit on false breakouts.

Short-term Short: Lightly short when encountering resistance in the $69,200-$70,000 zone, which is a Fibonacci 0.5 retracement and psychological level overlap; stop-loss if above $70,000.

Key Support: $65,000-$66,000 → $60,000
Key Resistance: $69,200 → $70,000 → $72,600-$76,200

Ethereum (ETH)

Long Strategy: Gradually build positions in the $1,950-$2,000 range, with stop-loss below $1,900. ETH ETF net outflows totaled $42.1 million this week, weaker than BTC.

Short-term Short: Lightly short when encountering resistance in the $2,150-$2,180 zone, which is a channel top and 50-day moving average convergence area.

Key Support: $2,000 → $1,950 → $1,900
Key Resistance: $2,150-$2,180 → $2,380

Crude Oil

Currently driven by geopolitical events, oil prices are highly volatile. Retail investors are advised to stay on the sidelines. Pay close attention to the outcome of the US-Iran negotiations on April 6: if there is breakthrough progress, prices may fall sharply; if conflict escalates, prices could surge further.

4. Future Key Variables

· US-Iran Negotiation Outcome on April 6: The shortest path variable, directly determining oil price direction and influencing the strength of the “geopolitical hedge” narrative for Bitcoin.

· US CPI Data on April 9: Inflation data will influence market expectations of Fed rate cuts and is a core macro driver for Bitcoin.

· ETF Capital Flows: Transition from significant outflows last week to slight inflows this week; continued inflows could further boost Bitcoin.

Risk Warning: All content in this article is for market analysis purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading cryptocurrencies and crude oil carries high risks, with prices capable of sharp reversals in a short period. Please make decisions cautiously based on your risk tolerance, strictly follow position management and stop-loss discipline, and bear all trading risks.