#Gate广场四月发帖挑战

VanEck Digital Asset Research Head Matthew Sigel pointed out on April 4th that the demand for downside protection in the Bitcoin derivatives market has surged to a historic extreme (around the 99th percentile), which is often seen as a strong contrarian bullish signal.

📊 Indicator Signal Interpretation

Extreme Fear: Demand for put options has skyrocketed, with the Put/Call open interest ratio reaching as high as 0.84, the highest since June 2021 (during China's crypto mining ban). This indicates the market is paying hefty insurance premiums for a "big drop."

Contrarian Logic: When "everyone is buying insurance," pessimism is already priced in. Historical data shows that after this indicator hits extreme highs, Bitcoin's average return over the next 90 days is about +13%.

Institutional View: VanEck's overall stance has turned optimistic, believing selling pressure has eased and it is suitable to establish long positions.

⚠️ Risks and Limitations

Not an Absolute Bottom: Extreme value signals only indicate a higher probability of reversal but do not guarantee a 100% turnaround. If macro liquidity conditions (such as Federal Reserve policies) tighten further, the market could continue to decline.

Leverage Risks: Sigel's team remains cautious about high-leverage assets like Coinbase, MicroStrategy, and others, advising retail investors to avoid blindly increasing leverage when signals appear.

Operational Tips: This signal is suitable for left-side traders to build positions gradually but requires strict position control and waiting for a breakout with volume confirmation to verify trend reversal.