Crude Oil$XTIUSD ‌#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Possible sharp rise or fall next

Currently, the market's reaction to this wave of Middle East conflict assumes a premise: it will end soon, shipping will resume, and oil prices won't spiral out of control. But based on the current negotiation conditions released, this expectation is clearly premature.
The conditions currently put forward by both sides are basically ceiling-level—dismantling nuclear facilities, permanently abandoning nuclear capabilities, war reparations... These demands are still in the probing stage and are far from being finalized.
If we break down the entire negotiation process, it generally goes through three stages:
The first stage is actually now.
Both sides push their conditions to the extreme, mainly testing each other's bottom lines and negotiating willingness. In other words, they are just bargaining, not reaching a real agreement.
The second stage depends on whether a ceasefire seems possible.
Once the market starts to believe there is hope for an agreement, it becomes the most dangerous time. Because both sides will want to gain more chips before the final deal, often leading to more aggressive and extreme actions, even deliberately creating tense incidents to elevate their bargaining position.
The third stage is the actual conclusion.
Core disagreements begin to narrow, consensus is gradually reached, and the conflict enters the ending phase.
But for the market, the focus is not on the third stage but on the second.
Looking back at past Middle East energy crises, the true peak of oil prices often isn't when the war first erupts, nor after the official ceasefire, but during a very delicate window—about 2 to 4 weeks when negotiations seem close to breaking down but are actually not far from a final agreement.
The fundamental logic is simple:
It's not about escalating the war, but about quickly filling the chips to force the other side to make concessions and end the conflict sooner.
Technical analysis of crude oil is basically useless; it mainly depends on news and the development of geopolitical crises. My clear view is: start shorting at 120, add to the short at 150. Crude oil can't keep rising forever; if it does, the world will face big trouble. The ultimate outcome will definitely be a sharp decline.