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BREAKING: Oil prices could rise to $120–130 per barrel in the short term, with risks exceeding $150 if the flow through the Strait of Hormuz continues to be disrupted until mid-May, according to J.P. Morgan in a report on Thursday.
J.P. Morgan's baseline scenario assumes that the disruption at the strait will ultimately be resolved through negotiations, following a period of supply tension and inventory declines.
Under this scenario, oil prices are forecasted to stay above $100 per barrel throughout Q2. Afterwards, prices could adjust downward in the second half of 2026, thanks to partial reopening of the strait and gradually stabilizing oil inventories.
J.P. Morgan also warns that the magnitude and duration of the price surge will be key factors in determining the severity of the macroeconomic shock, increasing the risk of weakening demand and potential recession if high prices persist. $BTC