It really seems like Bitcoin capital inflows have dried up. This was recently pointed out by the CEO of CryptoQuant, who noted that the combined PnL indicator—using the MVRV ratio, NUPL, and holder SOPR, smoothed with a 365-day moving average—has been declining since its peak in mid-last year. PnL essentially shows investors' profit/loss status, and the fact that it is moving toward the neutral zone indicates weakening market sentiment.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $67,000, down nearly 47% from the all-time high of $126,000 recorded in October last year. What's more interesting is that the realized market cap has stabilized, meaning no new funds are entering the market. Conversely, long-term holders have started taking profits since early 2024, with Glassnode data indicating they have realized gains of about 3.27 million BTC. This surpasses the scale of the entire 2021 cycle.

For a while, spot ETFs and aggressive purchases by major institutions have absorbed much of this selling pressure, but now most of that inflow has also stopped. In fact, Bitcoin holders have entered their first net realized loss zone since October 2023. Since December 23, investors have realized losses of approximately 69,000 BTC, and the annual net realized profit has shrunk from 4.4 million BTC in October to around 2.5 million BTC.

Experts generally believe the chances of a complete crash are low. The reason is that a certain institution still holds 712,647 BTC that has not yet been dumped onto the market. The average purchase price for this institution is around $76,037 per BTC, so at current prices, they are at a loss, but there is no forced selling pressure. Instead, analysts suggest that this downturn is more likely to be resolved through prolonged sideways trading within a range rather than a sharp rebound. Historical patterns show that after similar peaks where the PnL indicator turned downward, the market tended to move sideways for a long period before any clear direction emerged.

However, not all experts agree on this outlook. Some research teams believe that the decline in net realized profits does not necessarily signal a bearish trend. It could also be the result of more sophisticated institutional investors entering the market, which has reduced volatility.