I noticed an interesting trend — gold continues to work wonders this year, and I decided to figure out what’s next. Honestly, when I started digging into the analytics, I realized that most forecasts for gold over the next 5 years are based on the same well-known factors that traders have been aware of for a long time.

What truly drives the price: the money supply, inflation expectations, and the macroeconomic environment. If you believe in long-term charts, gold has completed a 10-year consolidation and is now entering a new bullish cycle. This is not speculation — it’s visible on a 50-year chart, where a classic cup with handle pattern is forming. Such patterns usually precede strong rallies.

What caught my attention especially — gold started setting historical highs not only in dollars but also in all other major currencies back in early 2024. This was the final confirmation that the bullish trend is serious. The M2 money base is steadily growing, and inflation expectations (tracked via TIP ETF) remain in an upward channel. The euro looks constructive, and Treasury yields are not exerting pressure. All conditions for growth are in place.

Now, about the forecasts themselves. Most major financial institutions agree on a range of $2,700–$2,800 by 2025. Goldman Sachs predicted $2,700, UBS and BofA roughly the same, J.P. Morgan mentioned $2,775–$2,850. Even Citi Research named $2,800–$3,000 as the upper range. This is a consensus, and ignoring it would be unwise.

But if we look at a more ambitious forecast for gold over the next 5 years, the picture looks different. Analysts at InvestingHaven are much more bullish — they projected $3,100 by 2025, $3,900 by 2026, and $5,000 by 2030. It sounds bold, but when you consider the dynamics of monetary policy and inflation trends, it’s not out of the realm of possibility. Gold tends to exceed expectations in the late stages of a bull market.

The futures market signals something interesting — net short positions of commercial traders remain stretched, which means gold has not yet been “released” for full growth. This could be an indicator of potential acceleration once these positions start closing.

Regarding silver, it’s also quite intriguing. The gold-to-silver ratio over 50 years shows that silver usually explodes in the late stages of a gold bull cycle. If gold reaches $5,000, silver could hit $50 — that’s a whole different level.

My forecast for gold over the next 5 years looks like this: $2,600–$2,800 in the short term (as most already agree to watch), then an acceleration to $3,500–$4,000 in 2026–2027, and if macroeconomics remains as it is now, reaching $4,500–$5,000 by the end of the decade is quite realistic. Of course, this is not a guarantee, but when all indicators point in the same direction, ignoring them would be foolish.

The main thing to keep in mind is that if gold drops below $1,770 and stays there, this entire bullish scenario will collapse. But the probability of that is minimal, given the current dynamics of the money supply and inflation expectations. As long as they grow, gold will grow with them.