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I noticed an interesting dynamic in the markets over the past few days. Gold and silver finally stopped falling and began to recover—spot silver jumped more than 4%, and gold moved back above 4800 dollars. It seems investors have revisited their positions after the panic about the dollar eased a bit.
All this story about Wash’s nomination to the ФРС, seems to be really changing sentiment. Strategists from Morgan Stanley say it could ease concerns about the rapid devaluation of the dollar and boost confidence in the system. In short, precious metals are pushing down, but in the long term, this could help stabilize the dollar.
Against this backdrop, Trump announced Project Vault—12 billion dollars for strategic mineral resources. This is a serious move to strengthen industrial security. Plus, a trade agreement with India has been reached: tariffs were reduced to 18%, and Modi agreed to switch to American energy instead of Russian.
As for macro data, the US manufacturing PMI for January completely blew past expectations—52.6 versus the forecast of 48.5. New orders, production, and employment are at a year-over-year high. This clearly supported the stock market. S&P 500 +0.54%, Dow Jones +1.05%, although the tech giants showed a mixed picture.
Something interesting is happening in stocks. Palantir turned out revenue up 70% year over year, 1.41 billion for the quarter, and gave very optimistic guidance. After the close, the shares surged 8%, but Goldman Sachs is positive, while Morgan Stanley warns about overvaluation. NXP also beat revenue expectations, but the automotive segment is weak—shares fell by more than 5%. Oracle launched a bond issuance of 25 billion for investments in AI cloud infrastructure, and Snowflake signed a 200-million-dollar agreement with OpenAI.
Disney showed a 5% increase in revenue, but net profit fell by 6%. The parks are performing well, but entertainment and sports are suffering. It seems subscriptions and advertising are weighing on it.
In the cryptocurrency market right now, BTC is trading at 66.96K, up +0.72% over the day, and ETH is at 2.06K +0.65%. Total crypto market cap is 2.73 trillion. Galaxy Digital believes Bitcoin could test the 200-week moving average at 58K. Bernstein says the bear market could end by the end of the year, with the bottom around 60K.
Today we’re watching the Australia rate decision—Australia’s index and other indices will react to it. Also, US job openings data and the ISM services data are coming out. The market remains volatile, so it’s better not to overcomplicate things with leverage. There is a recovery, but uncertainty remains.