Trump's one sentence, and I lost 140,000 in my position!

Just about to celebrate the end of the war, and the old man hit me with a counterattack.

Yesterday afternoon, I was lying on the sofa, watching Bitcoin rise from 64k to 68k, feeling great.

This time, it's a sure thing. Even Trump said the war would end in a few weeks, and the market is finally about to take off.

I even started calculating—if this wave hits the previous high, how much can I make? New watch, new car, even thought of the caption for my social media post.

And then?

Today, Trump’s prime-time speech, 20 minutes, and he kicked me from heaven back to earth.

The U.S. will take extremely severe action against Iran.

As soon as he finished speaking, Bitcoin plummeted from 68k straight down to 66.6k. Ethereum dropped 2.2%, Solana crashed 5.2%, and my total loss this week has reached 13%.

140,000 RMB, gone in 20 minutes.

I stared at the screen, took a drag of my cigarette, and only had one thought:

The biggest illusion for traders is thinking Trump will stay quiet.

You think you're trading crypto? You're working for Trump’s Twitter.

These five weeks, trading cryptocurrencies has been like working in a mental hospital.

Every morning when I wake up, the first thing I do isn’t check the K-line, but see what Trump has posted.

- He says the war might end in a few weeks → Bitcoin surges, everyone celebrates

- He says he will take severe action against Iran → Bitcoin crashes, the whole network wails

- He says the Strait of Hormuz will naturally reopen → Oil prices fluctuate, the market trembles

One day a statement, the next day a different direction.

Do you know what’s the most frustrating part?

After all the analysis—fundamentals, technical indicators, on-chain data—the final factor that determines your profit or loss is a Truth Social post from a 78-year-old guy at 3 a.m.

The Fear and Greed Index is now at 8, extreme fear.

What does 8 mean? Over the past month, this index has fluctuated between 8 and 14, never normal.

Market sentiment has become numb. Not that people aren’t panicking, but they’ve become used to it.

Stop watching Trump’s mouth; the real signals are here.

Let me tell you the truth:

In these five weeks, Bitcoin hasn’t been trading the war; it’s been trading Trump’s emotions.

From 60k to 73k, bouncing back and forth—selling on escalation, buying on de-escalation, always ending the day at the same place.

You chase the highs and sell the lows, busy as hell, only to realize it’s all in vain.

So what should you watch?

Two indicators, a thousand times more reliable than Trump’s tweets.

First, the insurance premiums for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Before the war, a ship’s one-way insurance cost was $250,000. Now? $2 million to $3 million.

That’s a tenfold increase.

When will the premiums drop below 2%? That’s when it’s truly safe. No matter how many press conferences Trump holds, the insurance companies are the most honest.

Second, the number of ships passing through.

Before the conflict, over 100 ships crossed the Strait daily.

In five weeks since the fighting started, only 21 ships have gone through.

Twenty-one ships.

Trump says safe passage is guaranteed, but shipowners are voting with their feet—they refuse to go.

As long as these two numbers don’t return to normal, any rebound caused by peace news is just a flash in the pan.

The bigger test is coming in mid-April.

You think it’s over?

Naive.

The current global economy is holding up because the International Energy Agency has released 426 million barrels of strategic oil reserves, filling a daily gap of 4.5 to 5 million barrels.

But these reserves are expected to run out by mid-April.

At that point, the supply gap will double, reaching 10 to 11 million barrels per day.

The Saudi royal family’s words: “An unprecedented shock, with no remaining buffer to absorb it.”

In plain language: by mid-April, whether Trump fights or not, the market could face a large-scale sell-off of risk assets.

Bitcoin? You can’t escape.

Stocks? You can’t escape.

No one can escape.

A few words for all traders still holding on:

I know it’s tough in your heart.

These five weeks, those chasing highs got trapped, those bottom-fishing got buried, and those shorting got wiped out by Trump’s words.

But I still have to say:

First, don’t go against Trump’s words.

He says peace? You buy? He says war? You sell? Then you’re just his leek. Real money is made when uncertainty disappears.

Second, seasonal patterns mean nothing in the face of war.

Some say April has a higher probability of Bitcoin rising, with an average increase of 20.9%.

That’s nonsense.

In the past 15 years, has there ever been a year when the Strait of Hormuz was closed?

Third, and most importantly—

Trading isn’t about predicting the direction; it’s about accepting that you can’t predict the direction.

In these five weeks, those who stayed out are the real winners.

I’ve now closed 70% of my positions, keeping 30% to watch the show.

It’s not that I don’t believe in cryptocurrencies; it’s that the current market isn’t for normal people.

When the oil tankers start running again, when insurance premiums drop, and when Trump’s mouth no longer influences the charts, I’ll come back.

And you? Are you still going to keep betting on what Trump will say next? #四月行情预测 $BTC