#Gate广场四月发帖挑战   Gold continued to fluctuate and rebound as expected yesterday, with the intraday high testing 4793, approaching the anticipated 20-day moving average resistance level. The daily chart also closed with a positive candle as expected. This morning, influenced by Trump's speech hinting that military actions could escalate in the short term, the US dollar temporarily strengthened, causing gold to retreat sharply. The current low has fallen to around 4650, fully giving back yesterday’s gains.

From a daily chart perspective, gold has closed higher for four consecutive trading days, reaching the expected 20-day moving average resistance. Technically, a correction or adjustment is needed. This morning’s news-driven correction may intensify the adjustment, potentially pushing gold back into the mid-term downtrend. Today’s key resistance is around the 20-day moving average at 4780, while support levels include the 5-day moving average at 4630/20 and the 10-day moving average at 4540. The market may remain weak over the next two days, but whether it can re-enter the downtrend and fall below the moving average band will likely depend on Friday’s non-farm payroll data.

Looking at the hourly chart, although gold continued to rise yesterday, the pace and resistance levels were within expectations. The 4800 level acted as a cap as anticipated. This morning’s news also triggered a correction and decline. The short-term decline was quite ideal, with a pause around 4650 to confirm resistance. Intraday resistance is around 4740-50, with the main focus still on the 4780-4800 zone. Support at 4650 is temporary; if the decline continues below 4600, gold may re-enter the mid-term downtrend.

In terms of technical and fundamental analysis today, the market is expected to correct and retrace. Trading strategies should focus on shorting at higher levels. Without clear positive fundamentals in the short term, it’s advisable to avoid long positions for now.

① For aggressive traders, consider shorting near the rebound at 4740-50, with a light position around 4780. Maintain a manual stop-loss above 4800. Any existing short positions from overnight can be held. Take partial profits at 4660-50, and watch for a test of 4600 for further entries. If the price falls below 4600, the short-term downtrend remains intact.

② Support levels at 4650 and 4620-00 may see short-term battles, but given the current lack of positive fundamentals and the higher probability of negative news, avoid any short-term long positions for now.