The cryptocurrency market has experienced a mild overnight rebound and is now entering a narrow trading range. Data shows that Bitcoin (BTC) is currently around $67,000, down 0.67% over the past 24 hours; Ethereum (ETH) is around $2,080, with a slight decline of 0.11% in the last 24 hours.

This morning’s early trading session, market sentiment is mainly driven by optimistic expectations of geopolitical easing. Previously, fueled by news that the US-Iran conflict might be nearing an end, risk assets generally rebounded, with Bitcoin briefly stabilizing above $68,000, and Ethereum rebounding to around $2,160. However, after President Trump’s nationwide speech ended at 9 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday, the market did not break out unilaterally. Instead, it showed a cautious attitude of “profit-taking” or “waiting for confirmation,” with prices slightly retreating to current levels.

Macro Drivers: Trump’s Speech as the Core Catalyst

Today’s market focus is undoubtedly on Trump’s nationwide speech. According to prior expectations, if the speech confirms the achievement of military objectives and signals clear geopolitical easing, global risk appetite will further increase, and high-beta assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum are expected to continue their rebound trend.

However, judging by the current hesitation in prices, the market may be digesting the details of the speech. While easing is the main theme, the “shoe” of geopolitical uncertainty has not fully dropped. If the market interprets this as “all good news,” or if the speech still contains tough stances, it could trigger profit-taking in the short term, leading to a rapid price correction.

Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis and Recommendations

Technical Outlook:
On the daily chart, Bitcoin remains in a recovery channel since the March lows. The price briefly tested but failed to hold above the $68,000 level and has now retreated to around $67,000. On the 4-hour chart, the price is testing the support of the MA60 moving average.

Notably, there was a sudden drop of 0.73% within 15 minutes early this morning, with the key support at $66,700 briefly broken, and the RSI falling below 30 into oversold territory. This indicates that although macro sentiment is warming, the technical support zone ($66,700–$67,000) still faces tests. On-chain data shows a large backlog of low-fee transactions in the Mempool, which may temporarily impact on-chain liquidity and price discovery efficiency.

Trading Suggestions:

1. Short-term Investors: Currently, it’s advisable to stay on the sidelines. If the price can hold above $67,500, consider a small long position targeting resistance at $68,500–$69,000; if it effectively breaks below $66,700 support, be alert to the risk of further decline toward $65,000.
2. Medium to Long-term Investors: Given macroeconomic resilience (e.g., US ADP data exceeding expectations) and potential rate cut expectations, consider placing staggered buy orders in the $66,000–$65,000 range, controlling position sizes, and waiting for geopolitical risks to fully clear.

Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis and Recommendations

Technical Outlook:
Ethereum has recently performed slightly better than Bitcoin but also faced resistance after reaching a high of $2,167. Currently, it is consolidating in the $2,070–$2,100 range, which is also a key neckline level from the previous breakout. On the hourly chart, $2,050–$2,080 is a short-term support/resistance zone.

Market views suggest that Ethereum is in a larger Elliott wave structure. A key long-term support/resistance level is at $1,382—if the price remains above this level, the bullish macro structure remains valid, with a long-term target even reaching $8,400; if it falls below, a significant downside space could open.

Trading Suggestions:

1. Short-term Investors: Focus on the $2,050–$2,080 support zone. If support holds and rebound signals appear, consider a small long position targeting $2,150–$2,200. If it breaks below $2,050, consider exiting and waiting; support below is at $2,000–$1,980.
2. Risk Warning: The current price is in a digestion phase following geopolitical news, with high volatility. Avoid chasing highs above $2,100 to prevent rapid declines if the speech details fall short of expectations.

Overall Conclusion and Risk Reminder

The current market is at the intersection of “macro expectations” and “technical adjustments.” The specific policy implementation after Trump’s speech (such as the actual opening of the Strait of Hormuz) and subsequent US economic data will be key to determining the next trend.

Key Variables:

- Geopolitical Situation: If conflicts ease quickly, risk appetite will continue to improve, providing momentum for a rebound.
- Inflation and Oil Prices: Sustained high oil prices boost inflation expectations, limiting the Fed’s room for large rate cuts, which remains a medium-term pressure on the market.

Summary:
At 10:50 on April 2, investors are advised to maintain a neutral and cautious stance. Short-term trading should strictly set stop-losses to avoid sharp volatility caused by news. Spot investors can patiently wait for price dips to key support levels (around BTC 66,000 and ETH 2,000) before deploying positions. Until clear directional signals emerge, it’s best to watch more and act less, with risk control being the top priority.