From "Three Arrows Striking" to the Main Theme in April — A Trader's Perspective Recap

Style: Conversational, practical, suitable for sharing personal insights

Last night, I saw BTC, gold, and US stocks all rallying at the same time, and someone in the group asked: "Is this risk aversion or risk-taking?"

My answer is: neither. The market is "closing" on trading.

1. Why is "Three Arrows Striking" rare?

Under normal circumstances, gold rises due to safe-haven demand, US stocks rise due to risk appetite, and the two rarely move in the same direction. But this time, the driving logic is unified — the "exit expectation" of geopolitical conflicts.

Iran announced a ceasefire, and Trump gave a 2-3 week timeline. This means:

· Oil prices fall → inflation pressure eases → rate cut expectations rise → positive for US stocks and crypto
· Uncertainty diminishes → funds flow back into risk assets
· Short-term pressure on gold? Not really, because rate cut expectations are also supporting gold

Therefore, all three asset classes rising simultaneously indicates the market is pricing in a common direction: easing policies.

2. How to view April?

My judgment: the main market will fluctuate upward, but don’t expect everything to benefit equally.

The "cooling-off period" after the halving hasn't ended yet, plus in April, US earnings season will cause fund rotation. Only two types of assets are truly likely to rise:

1. Leading projects with strong fundamentals (BTC/ETH)
2. Narratives that institutions can understand and buy into (RWA, AI + DePIN)

Altcoin season will come, but it might be a "structural bull," not a "broad rally." Chasing hot topics is less reliable than sticking to the main theme.

3. My strategy

· Keep the main positions unchanged, continue holding BTC/ETH
· Small positions in RWA leaders (core beneficiaries of rate cut trades)
· Keep some cash on hand, waiting for the moment when a real agreement is signed — if positive news causes a dip, that’s the time to add

The market always trades expectations, not facts. In April, just focus on the "rate cut expectation" line. #四月行情預測