4.1 Evening Analysis

Tonight's market faces a dual test: the release of the non-farm ADP employment report and the terrifying retail sales data, which will directly anchor the core fundamentals of U.S. employment and consumption, potentially rewriting the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations; combined with the geopolitical escalation over the U.S.争夺 Greenland military base, risk aversion sentiment is rising, the dollar is expected to strengthen, and both factors are exerting downward pressure on the crypto market.

From the chart perspective, Bitcoin surged to 69,305 before encountering resistance and pulling back. The hourly chart shows a high-level bearish candle, with bullish momentum waning. The upper band of the Bollinger Bands is under significant pressure, indicating short-term bullish strength is fading. Before the data release, market funds are cautious. If the ADP and retail data show strong performance, confirming U.S. economic resilience, the rate cut expectations will be further delayed, and a dollar rebound will directly suppress the price of cryptocurrencies. Additionally, geopolitical tensions causing risk aversion will likely lead to a flow of funds out of risk assets, causing Bitcoin to weaken and retrace. The first support level is at 67,500; if broken, a larger downside space opens up. A short-term bearish approach is recommended.

Trading suggestion: Buy in the range of 69,000-69,500, with a target of 67,000-67,500.