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Tonight at 20:30 ADP Employment Data Preview
Market Expectation: U.S. March ADP employment added 50,000 jobs
Data Surpassing Expectations: Economy slightly stronger → Fed rate cut expectations cool down → U.S. dollar strengthens → Bitcoin short-term sharp drop
Data Below Expectations: Economy slightly weaker → Fed rate cut expectations heat up → U.S. dollar weakens → Bitcoin rises
Data in line with expectations: Limited market volatility, return to technical trend
After the data release, volatility may be intense. Please trade cautiously, strictly set stop-losses, and prevent sudden spikes or crashes.
Core variables that truly determine market turning points:
1: The Fed's rate cut path (most critical): Rate cuts lead to liquidity easing, which is the foundation for a bullish trend in the crypto market
2: Bitcoin spot ETF capital flows: Continuous net inflows by institutions indicate genuine upward momentum; outflows suggest a weak rebound
3: Global dollar liquidity: The strength or weakness of the dollar directly affects the crypto market’s liquidity environment
The key to April’s market depends on policy and gold (Zijin) resonance—steady and excellent, avoiding one-sided moves
#BTC