Crypto Breakfast | March 31, 2026

Macro and Geopolitical News
1. Trump’s comments have limited effect on suppressing oil prices; he again threatens to strike Iran’s energy infrastructure, causing a sharp rise in international oil prices. WTI crude rose 3.72%, closing at $105.29 per barrel, breaking above the $100 mark for the first time; Brent crude rose 1.51%, closing at $107.99 per barrel.
2. The three major U.S. stock indices showed mixed performance: Dow up slightly by 0.11%, S&P 500 down 0.39%, Nasdaq down 0.73%. Tech stocks generally pulled back, with Nvidia down 1%, Micron Technology down 9.8%, and Intel down over 4%.
3. Key points from Powell’s speech: Energy shocks are usually short-lived; the central bank should patiently wait for them to subside on their own; current policy stance is favorable, and it’s appropriate to observe how the situation develops; private credit currently poses no systemic risk. During the speech, interest rate futures withdrew this year’s rate hike expectations and instead priced in a small cut of about 3 basis points by the end of the year.
4. Iran’s parliament approved a toll fee for passage through the Strait of Hormuz (payable in Iranian currency) and is considering withdrawing from the Non-Proliferation Treaty. The Haifa refinery in Israel was hit by a missile attack and caught fire; Trump said a response is “coming soon.”
5. Trump stated that he is engaged in serious negotiations with Iran; if they break down, he will destroy Iran’s energy and electricity facilities and Hark Island.
Cryptocurrency and Project Updates
6. An will launch WTI crude, Brent crude, and natural gas USDT perpetual contracts on April 1.
7. Aave Labs launched Aave V4 and Aave Pro mainnets, adopting a “hub + branch” architecture.
8. Aster updated its tokenomics, removing monthly linear unlocks and switching to staking-only emissions.
9. The New York Stock Exchange officially approved the listing of Morgan Stanley’s spot Bitcoin ETF (MSBT), custodied by Coinbase, with an annual fee rate of 0.14%.
10. BitMine increased its ETH holdings by 71,179 ETH last week, bringing total holdings to approximately 4.732 million ETH, accounting for about 3.92% of circulating ETH.
11. OpenAI open-sourced the Claude Code plugin, supporting direct calls to Codex for code review or task delegation.
12. Alibaba Qianwen released the full-modal large model Qwen3.5-Omni series, supporting 256k long context, over 10 hours of audio, and 400 seconds of 720P video and audio input.
13. ClaudeCode is now available for Max and Pro users, enabling computer use functionality that allows controlling a computer via terminal.
Bitcoin Market Analysis
Amid Middle East tensions, Trump shows signs of easing but is currently in a difficult position: ending the conflict means the Strait of Hormuz is not fully open; not ending it means the 4-6 week window he previously promised is approaching.
In Trump’s style, he could terminate actions at any time (election priority).
Bitcoin has found support around 66,000 and is currently trading near 67,000. In the short term, the trend still heavily depends on Trump’s statements and developments in the Middle East; ongoing focus on war dynamics and capital flows.
#美伊战事或升级为地面战