#创作者冲榜 #BTC能否守住6.5万美元？

$65,000 defense line is hard to hold, $50,000 may be the bottom of this bear market

I've always thought that the most painful part of trading cryptocurrencies was the one-sided decline in a bear market. But this morning, I realized that the most painful thing in the world is “long and short爆炸.” Early this morning, Bitcoin once plunged sharply to $65,000, then rebounded significantly to $67,888, ruthlessly squeezing contract traders. Looking ahead, the $65,000 key level may no longer serve as an effective defense for the bulls, and Bitcoin could break below previous lows or even touch $50,000.

1. Technical Market Analysis

1.1 Hourly Chart: The MACD fast and slow lines remain in a golden cross above zero, with green volume bars growing longer, indicating short-term bullish momentum remains dominant, and the rebound structure has not been broken.

2. On the 4-hour chart: Bitcoin experienced a rapid rebound that hit the upper Bollinger Band resistance and diverged from the moving averages. A short-term correction may occur, but upward momentum still exists.

3. Daily Chart: After yesterday’s doji star close, today’s small bullish candle forms a “Morning Star” pattern, indicating potential for further upside. The first daily resistance is around 68,500, and the second near 69,600.

4. Weekly Chart: A bearish “rising wedge” pattern has formed, often seen as a sign of a trend reversal in a long-term uptrend. Meanwhile, the MA10 line is moving down and continuously suppressing the price, suggesting a new wave of decline may have begun. If so, the previous low of 59,900 could be the first target, with current weekly resistance around 69,000.

Based on the above analysis, the market shows short-term bullishness but medium-term bearishness. Short-term trading can focus on long positions, but if the price reaches around 68,500–69,000, it’s advisable to take profits decisively and consider opening some short positions.

Key levels:
- First support: 67,200
- Second support: 65,000
- First resistance: 68,500
- Second resistance: 69,000

2. News – US and Iran may enter ground combat, Non-Farm Payrolls as a short-term decisive factor

1. This Sunday, the US military dispatched the amphibious assault ship “Littoral Combat Ship” and 3,500 Marines to the Middle East. Today, hundreds of US special forces soldiers arrived in the region. A ground invasion is highly likely in the next phase. Meanwhile, Yemen’s Houthi forces have also become involved, adding another variable to Middle East tensions. As the conflict escalates, crypto prices may further decline.

2. Also, attention should be paid to the upcoming US March Non-Farm Payrolls data release this Friday. Amid high inflation expectations globally, markets are already betting that the Fed may need to raise interest rates urgently within two weeks. The NFP data will be a key factor in determining the Fed’s monetary policy in April and the development of gold, silver, and crypto markets. If the data exceeds expectations, it indicates a resilient US economy, which is bearish for gold and cryptocurrencies, and may increase rate hike expectations, slightly supporting crude oil. If the data is weaker than expected, it suggests possible stagflation, which is bullish for gold and cryptocurrencies, and rate hike expectations will decrease.

3. Oil Price Fluctuations – Focus on Hark Island gains/losses and Yemen Houthi actions

Why mention the Yemen Houthi forces here? Because after the Strait of Hormuz shipping was shut down, Saudi Arabia has been ramping up exports through its east-west oil pipeline to the Red Sea, reaching a maximum of 7 million barrels per day. This has prevented the previous sharp spikes in oil prices during Middle East crises. However, the core risk of this “Plan B” is that it shifts the geopolitical exposure of oil exports from the Strait of Hormuz to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—the narrow waterway at the southern end of the Red Sea, most of which is controlled by the Houthis (see below, Figure 2). Although Saudi Arabia and the Houthis currently have a ceasefire agreement, escalation could lead to Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping.

Currently, a small long position in crude oil can be considered, with support at $95 and targets near the previous high of $120.

4. Risk Management

1. Position Management: Given the volatile swings after the doji star, a light and phased approach is recommended.

2. Risk-Reward Control: Ensure each trade has a potential risk-reward ratio greater than 1:1.5, with a clear plan before entering.