#美联储加息预期再起

Global markets have recently been dominated by one of the most critical macro narratives: expectations around the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve shifting back toward a more hawkish stance. While rate cuts were previously anticipated for 2026, rising inflationary pressures and geopolitical risks have fundamentally reshaped market pricing.
Current Macro Outlook
Recent developments indicate that although the Fed has kept its policy rate within the 3.50%–3.75% range, forward-looking expectations have changed significantly.
Inflation remains above the 2% target
Energy prices and supply shocks continue to exert upward pressure
Markets are reducing expectations for rate cuts while beginning to price in the possibility of rate hikes
In particular, interest rate futures now suggest that the probability of a rate hike by year-end has risen to around 25%.
Factors Driving Renewed Rate Hike Expectations
Geopolitical Risks and Energy Shock
Tensions between the U.S. and Iran, along with ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, have pushed oil prices sharply higher. This development is increasing inflation expectations, raising supply chain costs, and putting pressure on global growth. A surge in oil prices exceeding 40% signals a potential reacceleration of inflation.
Sticky Inflation Dynamics
The Fed’s preferred core inflation indicator, PCE, remains above target, with 2026 projections revised upward. This limits the Fed’s ability to initiate early rate cuts while keeping the option of further tightening on the table if necessary.
Sharp Shift in Market Expectations
Just a few months ago, markets were pricing in two to three rate cuts. Today, those expectations have largely disappeared. The “higher for longer” narrative has taken hold, and in some scenarios, rate hikes are now seen as the primary risk. Markets are no longer certain about the Fed’s next move, increasing overall volatility.
Divergence Within the Fed
There is no clear consensus among Fed officials. Some members prioritize inflation risks and advocate maintaining a tight stance, while others highlight the risks of economic slowdown. However, recent statements suggest that the overall tone remains cautious and relatively hawkish.
Market Impact
Crypto and Risk Assets
Higher rate expectations lead to tighter liquidity conditions, which can create downside pressure, particularly on Bitcoin and altcoins.
Bonds and the Dollar
U.S. Treasury yields are rising, and the dollar is strengthening. The 10-year Treasury yield approaching 4.45% reflects tightening financial conditions.
Equities
Valuations are under pressure, especially for growth stocks, which are more sensitive to interest rates.
Strategic Assessment
The current environment is no longer a traditional rate-cut cycle. Instead, it represents a regime of high uncertainty and two-sided risks.
The Fed’s core challenge is balancing inflation control with sustaining economic growth. If inflation driven by energy does not remain temporary and begins to spread into core components, the likelihood of rate hikes will increase significantly.
Conclusion
The resurgence of rate hike expectations signals a new phase for global markets. The key question is no longer when rates will be cut, but whether they could rise again. This shift will continue to be one of the most decisive factors shaping the direction of crypto, equities, and all risk assets.