Gold struggles to rebound amid weak volatility, crude oil bulls step cautiously

Spot Gold: News: Today is Sunday (March 29), markets are closed. As of March 27, spot gold ended its previous decline, closing at $4,457.70 per ounce, up 1.79% for the day.
Short-term trends will be influenced by two major factors: if tensions in the Middle East persist, gold prices may retreat toward the $4,000 level; if signals of ceasefire or easing rate hike expectations emerge, a rebound toward around $5,000 is possible.
Market sentiment remains sensitive, with volatility expected to stay high.
Next week (March 30 - April 3) will see intense market focus.
The US March Non-Farm Payrolls report (April 3) will be the first key employment data since the US-Iran conflict began, crucial for assessing wartime economic resilience and Fed policy direction. Additionally, global inflation and economic activity indicators such as Germany’s March CPI, US March ADP (“Small Non-Farm”), ISM Manufacturing PMI, China’s official and Caixin PMI will be released, collectively painting the current economic picture.
Note: Some delayed US February data (such as JOLTs job openings, retail sales) will also be released.
Technical analysis: On the daily chart, after encountering resistance during last Friday’s rebound, gold remains under pressure with sideways oscillation. Support levels include the 30-minute 50-day moving average at $4,450, followed by the key round number at $4,400, which was also the starting point of Friday’s rally; resistance levels include the rebound resistance at $4,525 seen during Friday’s US session, followed by the high near $4,555 from Friday, and the resistance at Thursday’s bottoming rebound. The 5-day moving average and MACD are showing a slight slowdown in bearish crossover, while the KDJ has a small bullish crossover turning downward, and RSI’s bearish crossover is slightly turning up, indicating short-term technical favor for bears. Although the short-term downtrend has paused, the rebound faces clear resistance. Focus on resistance at $4,525-$4,600 and support at $4,450-$4,370.
Gold opening strategy: Short positions: aggressive entry around $4,525±5, conservative around $4,593±5, with a stop loss of about $20, target profit of $50/$100! Long positions: aggressive entry around $4,450±5, conservative around $4,370±5, with a stop loss of about $20, target profit of $50/$100!
Mainly favoring short positions.

WTI Crude Oil: News: Geopolitical risks have weakened significantly compared to previous high-intensity shocks, but Middle East issues remain unpredictable. The Strait of Hormuz is still blocked, and OPEC countries have substantially cut production. Uncertainties between the US and Iran persist, with significant disagreements on core issues. If the Strait of Hormuz reopens, oil prices are likely to revert to fundamentals, with shipping and capacity quickly recovering. If the US and Iran fail to reach an agreement, there is still upward momentum for oil prices.
Overall, both the US and Iran are likely to maintain restraint, as neither side can tolerate the damages of war, making further de-escalation probable.
Technical analysis: On the daily chart, crude oil prices surged above $110 due to macro geopolitical influences. Moving averages are diverging upward, indicating a medium-term bullish trend. The price is oscillating at high levels with strong bullish momentum. The medium-term outlook remains bullish. MACD is gradually crossing above zero with a gentle slope, indicating increasing bullish momentum. Next week, crude oil is expected to continue a slight pullback. Focus on resistance at $102.5-$105 and support at $100/$98.6.
Crude oil opening strategy: Short positions: aggressive around $102.5±0.2, conservative around $105±0.2, with stops at about $0.6, target near $100.0! Long positions: aggressive around $100±0.2, conservative around $98.6±0.2, with stops at about $0.6, target near $105.0!
Primarily favoring long positions on dips.

The above is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice📢📢📢